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The victory is not as wide a margin as Smith’s camp likely hoped, said Medicine Hat College political scientist Jim Groom.
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November 8, 2022 • 37 minutes ago • 4 minutes read • 69 comments United Conservative Party leader and premier Danielle Smith celebrates her byelection victory in Medicine Hat, Alta., Tuesday, Nov. 8 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
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New Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has won Tuesday’s by-election in Brooks-Medicine Hat, securing a seat in the legislature.
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With all polls reported, Smith took first place with 54.5 percent of the vote. NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk was runner-up with 26.7%, while Alberta party leader Barry Morishita finished third with 16.5%.
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Smith, who won the UCP leadership last month, called the 28-day by-election in southern Alberta immediately after being sworn into office.
Two local candidates hoped to play spoiler in the crucial race: Dirk, a retired teacher from Medicine Hat, and Morishita, the former mayor of Brooks.
Also on the ballot were two right wing candidates, Bob Blayone with The Independence Party and Jeevan Mangat with the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta.
Smith celebrated the decisive victory with supporters at a restaurant in downtown Medicine Hat shortly after the race was called Tuesday night.
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“This is more than just a victory party. This is the start of something bigger. This is our statement that Alberta is worth fighting for,” Smith said, quickly focusing on the by-election. in the expected general elections of May 2023.
“The people of Brooks-Medicine Hat made their choice. And next year it will be the people of Alberta’s turn to make up their minds.”
In his victory speech, Smith focused on the cost of living and asserting Alberta’s sovereignty in Ottawa. He also talked about health care, a big issue in the entourage, promising more frontline workers while cutting administrative staff costs.
The victory is not as wide a margin as Smith’s camp likely hoped, said Medicine Hat College political scientist Jim Groom.
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“It’s not the explosion that I think he would like,” Groom said. “I think all politicians would like to have overwhelming results, of course, but that’s not always possible. But it’s kind of a modest victory.
“I think there was some anticipation that it was going to be a slam-dunk, and I think it was a little bit more of a fight than they thought.”
Smith hand-picked the rural riding to run, with former MP Michaela Frey resigning her seat to open the job. He decided not to run for the already vacant Calgary-Elbow seat, which will remain unfilled until the scheduled May 2023 general election.
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Brooks’ ex-mayor is seeking an upset by-election in an uphill battle against the premier
While not a landslide victory, Smith’s victory shows that the rural mountains remain safe ground for the UCP, Groom said.
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With rural constituencies leaning blue and Edmonton expected to be NDP territory, the political scientist said it’s the Calgary constituencies that will determine the outcome of next May’s election.
“Calgary will be the deciding factor, I think, and I’m not sure with the current program and platform of UCP that they can win in Calgary,” Groom said.
In a concession speech Tuesday, Dirk said she was proud of her campaign, charging that she had achieved the NDP’s best result in the competition.
“We mobilized like never before, with more than 100 volunteers joining this team,” said Dirk. “We knocked on more than 6,000 doors, we made 12,000 phone calls. We raised over $100,000 for this tour.”
Dirk told Postmedia that he wants to build up to next year’s general election by traveling to rural areas in the entourage to “dispel misconceptions about the NDP.” He is expected to return to riding in May.
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“When people hear our message and I’m able to explain some of the misconceptions about who we are as a party, and who I am as an individual, that’s when we hit the ground running,” he said.
Speaking to Postmedia after the results were released Tuesday, Morishita said he was grateful for his campaign team and noted that his party, which finished third, performed better than in 2019. He congratulated Smith for her victory, but urged her to move forward on issues important to riding.
“Health care, education, affordability — we have some unique issues here,” Morishita said. “They must involve the community in these solutions. And I hope he realizes that because that’s the only way to go.”
The Alberta party will hold its general meeting in a few weeks, where Morishita said they will look at the outcome of the by-election.
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Alberta Party candidate Barry Morishita, running in the Nov. 8 Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election, was pictured in Brooks. Gavin Young/Postmedia
Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams told Postmedia on Monday that Smith’s victory allows him to advance some of the points in his leadership campaign, including the Alberta Sovereignty Act.
As Smith proposed, this law would allow Alberta to opt out of federal policies and decisions it deems to be against the province’s interests.
“It would certainly give her some leeway to try to advance her agenda, to have the first session of the legislature with her there to come up with her proposals to address the concerns that Albertans have,” Williams said.
The legislative assembly is scheduled to meet again on November 29. Smith has said he will introduce the Alberta Sovereignty Act as the first bill of the session.
Just under 12,700 people voted in the by-election, a turnout of 36.8 percent. It’s a number the groom said was disappointing.
“People don’t seem to have time to watch by-elections, but they’re actually confirming a prime minister,” Groom said. “That’s not cool. I’m not sure why the community didn’t get more involved.”
jherring@postmedia.com
Twitter: @jasonfherring
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