Temperatures in Europe have risen more than twice the global average in the past 30 years, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The effects of this warming are already being seen, with droughts, forest fires and melting across the continent. The State of the European Climate report, produced with the EU’s Copernicus service, warns that as the warming trend continues, exceptional heat, forest fires, floods and other climate consequences will affect society , economies and ecosystems.
From 1991 to 2021, temperatures in Europe have warmed at an average rate of about 0.5°C per decade. This has had physical results: Alpine glaciers lost 30 meters of ice thickness between 1997 and 2021, while the Greenland ice sheet has also been melting, contributing to rising sea levels. In the summer of 2021, Greenland had its first recorded rain at its highest point, Summit Station.
Human life has been lost as a result of extreme weather events. The report says that in 2021, high-impact weather and climate events, 84% of which were floods and storms, caused hundreds of deaths, directly affected more than 500,000 people and caused economic damage exceeding the 50 billion dollars.
“Europe presents a live picture of a warming world and reminds us that even well-prepared societies are not immune to the impacts of extreme weather events,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas “This year, as in 2021, large parts of Europe have been affected by extensive heat waves and drought, which have led to wildfires. In 2021, exceptional floods caused death and devastation.”
It also found that this trend was very likely to continue, with more weather disasters predicted in the future. It predicts that temperatures will rise in all European areas at a faster rate than global average temperature changes, similar to previous observations. As the climate warms to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, weather events will accelerate, with increasingly low summer rainfall likely to lead to devastating droughts. Extreme rainfall and flooding are likely to occur in all regions except the Mediterranean in recent months.
While the report makes grim reading, there is some good news. It notes that many European countries have been very good at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with EU emissions falling by 31% between 1990 and 2020. Europe has also acted to protect people from the worst effects of the climate emergency, with extreme weather warning systems protecting around 75% of people, while heat health action plans have saved many lives.
“On the mitigation side, the good pace of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the region should continue and ambition should be raised further. Europe can play a key role in achieving a carbon neutral society by mid-century to meet Paris [climate] deal,” Taalas said.
There are a number of reasons why Europe has warmed faster than other parts of the world. It has a high percentage of land mass, which warms faster than the sea. The Arctic and generally high northern latitudes are also the fastest warming regions globally and a relatively large part of Europe is in northern latitudes.
Feedback systems could also be contributing, such as dried soil moisture, which means temperatures rise faster and therefore dry out the soil more. Another example of feedback loops is Europe’s vulnerability to twin jet streams.
This “twin” effect occurs when a jet stream temporarily splits in two, leaving an area of weak winds and high-pressure air between the two branches that causes extreme heat. These double currents become more likely as the land mass warms in early summer.
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A study in Nature Communications published earlier this year found that Europa was a “hotspot for heat waves,” in part because double jet streams account for about 35 percent of temperature variability.
Other scientists welcomed the report, noting that European cities were “heat islands” and therefore feel more extreme temperatures. Professor Daniela Schmidt, from the Cabot Institute and School of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol, said: “When global warming is reported, the focus is always on the global average, currently 1.1C. But there are big differences, with much of the ocean warming less, land and more the further you go to the poles. Also, our cities are heat islands, as are many of us we felt during this hot summer.
“In the UK, this summer’s heatwave caused nearly 3,000 extra deaths among people over 65. Heat and droughts together affected transport on European rivers, power generation, our ecosystems and our people. These risks will only increase with each increase in warming, and reducing these risks will become more difficult the longer we wait.”