Fantasy football tips should always be relative and league dependent. Note that some players are DFS oriented. Good luck with your Week 15 lineups!
Home: Steelers D/ST, Panthers D/ST
The Panthers won last week, but Sam Darnold got just 5.0 YPA and wasn’t asked to do much. Pittsburgh enters with a DL>OL advantage and has played much better this season with TJ Watt in the outfield.
The Steelers will start Mitch Trubisky on the road against a quietly rising Carolina defense that ranks third in DVOA over the past five weeks. Carolina has also shut down the run since allowing Joe Mixon to explode, and this matchup has one of the lowest totals of the week.
Start in DFS: Miles Sanders ($26)
Start: Justin Fields
Sanders led the league in rushing last week and is on pace to rush for 15 touchdowns this season after scoring zero last year. He has one of the best career YPC (5.1) in NFL history and has benefited more than anyone else in the league from the script this season. The Eagles are the second favorite (-8.5) this week against a Bears defense that ranks last in DVOA and has been hammered for 21 NFL rushing scores and the fourth-most fantasy points for RBs. Opponents have the highest run rate in the league when facing Chicago this year.
Sanders should be treated as a top-five RB this week, but his DFS salary doesn’t reflect that.
Miles Sanders has a big fantasy in Week 15. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Fields picked up the runs designed during his return from a shoulder injury, but still finished as a top-five fantasy QB and should be healthier now coming off the bye. He gets a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Fields has been a top-10 QB in each of his last seven games without ever attempting 30 passes. Daniel Jones was QB1 last week despite not throwing for 170 yards against Philadelphia thanks to his run. No need to sit on Fields, especially given the QB alternatives this week.
The story continues
Start: Isiah Pacheco, Chris Moore
Jerick McKinnon is having a fantastic big performance, but Pacheco has averaged 17.2 chances over the last five games, including the bulk of the red zone work. More targets for Pacheco would be nice, but a starring role for the Chiefs usually leads to a ton of fantasy points. After facing a tough running back schedule the last three weeks (LAR, @Cin, @Den), Pacheco takes on a Texans defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to running backs this season. Opponents have the second-highest run rate when facing Houston, and Kansas City has by far the highest implied team total. Treat Pacheco as a top 15 RB this week.
Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are both out, and Moore has put up big numbers in two games when both have been out. The Texans are hurt by 14 points, so they will throw a lot against a Kansas City defense allowing the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Starting: Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence
Prescott has struggled a bit over the past three weeks, but he should bounce back against a Jacksonville defense that has been one of the most favorable to fantasy QBs over the past eight games. Dallas has the third-highest implied team total this week, so make sure Prescott is in your fantasy lineup in what could easily turn into a shootout.
CeeDee Lamb is the #1 WR on my board this week.
Lawrence was arguably the best player in the league last week, posting a 10:0 TD:INT ratio over the last five games. Dallas is a tough matchup, but there should be volume given the likely script of the game. Lawrence is simply playing too well right now to sit in fantasy leagues. Will be drafted as a top five QB in 2023.
Also expect a big comeback performance from Travis Etienne this week.
Fade in DFS: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($26), Zonovan Knight ($21)
St. Brown has developed into a legitimate star, but it’s worth noting that he’s averaged 7.8 catches and 86.9 yards with six touchdowns at home this season compared to 5.6-58.0-0 on the road. Jared Goff has a TD:TO ratio of 20:3 in Detroit versus 2:4 on the road. While the Lions’ offense improves, and Goff’s YPA drops a modest 0.2 away from home, St. Brown will also face additional problems thanks to the cold weather this week.
The Jets have allowed the third-fewest YPA and fantasy points to wide receivers this season (including closing the slot). And while the Sun God still saw nine targets last week, he has a lot more competition for looks with Jameson Williams, D’Andre Swift and DJ Chark all healthy together for the first time. Don’t bank on St. Brown in fantasy leagues, but keep expectations tempered and definitely look for another DFS share this week.
After allowing 11 rushing scores to RBs through the first seven games, the Lions have given up just two more over six games since then (with no back reaching 75 rushing yards in that span). When adjusting for the opponent, the Lions have been one of the league’s stingiest defenses against fantasy backs since the team’s Week 6 bye. No running back has reached 10 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) against Detroit since Week 7. The Lions have held both Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook to less than 25 rushing yards on 15 carries over the past month . Knight has undoubtedly impressed as he came out of nowhere, but he ceded most of the passing work during Michael Carter’s return last week and gets a tough matchup on Sunday. The return of Zach Wilson at QB for the Jets is another cause for concern regarding Knight’s outlook.
Headquarters: All the Falcons
Start in DFS: Alvin Kamara ($19)
Let’s look at rookie Desmond Ridder before trusting any Falcons in the fantasy playoffs, especially on the road against a stout New Orleans defense that’s allowed just 4.9 yards per play over the past three weeks. The Falcons have one of the lowest passing rates in the league, deploy a committee in their backfield and will have a third-round rookie taking his first snap.
Kamara has averaged 5.6 catches, 125.4 yards rushing with three touchdowns in five home games. He is scoreless and averages 3.8 sacks and 59.4 YFS in six away games. Kamara should have fresh legs after the bye that follows an incredibly tough stretch of the schedule against stingy run defenses (Bal, @Pit, LAR, @SF, @TB) and Mark Ingram is out (Andy Dalton who remains at QB is a plus). also for Kamara). This matchup should produce a favorable game script for New Orleans going up against a rookie QB making his first start, but Kamara barely commands a top-15 salary in DFS this week.
Seat: Trey McBride
Start: Greg Dulcich
Denver is a tough pass defense, and McBride would rank second to last among 178 pass receivers in yards per carry if he were to qualify. The rookie has gotten off to an incredibly slow start to his NFL career. Arizona’s offense has been as inept with Kyler Murray as it has been with Colt McCoy this season.
Dulcich led all tight ends in passing yards last week and now gets an Arizona defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Courtland Sutton will miss another week and the Broncos are down numerous running backs. Dulcich has seen eight targets in consecutive games and can start in this matchup even with Brett Rypien at quarterback for Denver.
Start: Pierre Strong
Seat: Derek Carr
Strong played 70 percent of the snaps and saw eight of 10 RB opportunities in the second half last week after Rhamondre Stevenson left early. Damien Harris is out on Sunday, Stevenson is a game time call but he wouldn’t be 100% if he goes and Kevin Harris will probably be involved. Strong should at least be the favorite for the passing work with Stevenson out or limited against a Raiders defense that allows the majority of receiving yards to running backs this season.
Playing inside against a Las Vegas D that ranks next to last in DVOA and in a New England offense with the second-highest RB target percentage (and with DeVante Parker out and Jakobi Meyers and Stevenson potentially playing after injuries) , Strong has the reverse this week.
Could Pierre Strong take advantage of all the running back injuries in New England? (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Patriots have the No. 4 pass defense in DVOA and the second-highest pressure rate. Thanks in part to a lack of rushing, Carr has finished in the top 10 QBs just twice all season, and has yet to post top-five QB stats in any week this year.
Starts in DFS: Chig Okonkwo ($12), Justin Herbert ($36)
Okonkwo saw a fair bit of usage as expected last week with Treylon Burks out. Chig remains the DFS minimum this week despite a newly increased role, while producing the second-most yards per run among all pass catchers since Week 9.
Herbert has played through broken ribs, an extremely shaky workout and poor offensive play this year. But he threw for 367 yards last week with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen coming off their first game together all season and should be in store for another big game against a struggling Titans defense. Tennessee has the 28th passing D, but ranks first against the run in DVOA, while opponents have the highest passing rate against them this season. The Titans have been cut by quarterbacks in 2022 for the second-best points, so Herbert is an intriguing DFS play.
Start in DFS: Ja’Marr Chase ($31)
Seat: Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White
Chase gets a boost with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst all hit and/or out. He has finished No. 1, No. 1, No. 23 and No. 3 among fantasy receivers in his last four healthy weeks and should see more targets with all the injuries in Cincinnati. Chase deserves consideration as a DFS building block in Week 15.
The Buccaneers’ RBs get a boost in PPR leagues, but Fournette and White are splitting the snaps evenly. They’ll get a Bengals defense that has been one of the league’s meanest against the run when DJ Reader has been on the field this season. During the last three…