Although not officially finalized, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is expected to debut with the 2024 season. Each week for the remainder of the season, The Athletic will test the proposed format using the latest standings of the Top 25 of the CFP committee.
Here’s how the bracket would be seeded and site locations determined using the committee’s Nov. 8 rankings and a 2024-25 schedule. Note: The Orange and Cotton Bowls were previously scheduled to host the 2024-25 semifinals, and Atlanta was selected as the national championship game.
The top four seeds (first round bye):
- Georgia (SEC Champion)
- Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
- TCU (Big 12 Champion)
- Oregon (Pac-12 Champion)
Under the model approved by the CFP board, the top four seeds will be reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. For our purposes, we are designating the top-ranked team in each conference as its champion. That means No. 1 Georgia (SEC), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 4 TCU (Big 12) and No. 6 Oregon (Pac-12) they would say goodbye in the quarterfinals.
Numbers 5-12 then:
5. Michigan (overall)6. Tennessee (overall)7. LSU (overall)8. USC (in general)9. Alabama (overall)10. Clemson (ACC Champion)11. Ole Miss (overall)12. Tulane (AAC Champion)
Under the same model, the six highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths along with the top-six overall teams. If the season ended today, the fifth- and sixth-ranked conference champions would be No. 10 Clemson (ACC) and No. 17 Tulane (AAC).
Joining them in the field would be the remaining six top-ranked teams: No. 3 Michigan, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 7 LSU, No. 8 USC, No. 9 Alabama and No. 11 Ole Miss.
The CFP calendar
All Eastern eras.
First Round
friday December 13
- No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 LSU, 7:30 p.m
sat December 14
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan, noon
- No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Tennessee, 4 p.m
- No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 USC, 8 p.m
All four first-round games will be played on the campuses of the No. 5-8 seeds during the third weekend in December. Which games are placed in which slots would likely be determined by ESPN, with USC-Alabama being the obvious prime-time Saturday pick. And you know LSU would love to host Clemson in a night game on Friday.
Quarter finals
Sat. December 31
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Oregon winner vs. Michigan-Tulane, 7:30 p.m
Wed. January 1
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 TCU vs. Tennessee-Ole Miss winner, 1 p.m
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. LSU-Clemson winner, 5 p.m
- Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. USC-Alabama winner, 8:45 p.m
The current New Year’s Six bowls are expected to host quarter-finals and semi-finals again, with the aim of playing most quarter-finals on New Year’s Day. And the CFP board stated in its announcement that the top four seeds will be assigned “taking into account current contract bowl relationships.”
Using those parameters, No. 1 Georgia would go to the SEC Contract Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champions. The Peach and Fiesta bowls have no conference partners, but No. 3 TCU would likely have preference over No. 4 seed Oregon. Placing the Frogs in the Peach Bowl would put them at a disadvantage against a lower-seeded SEC foe, so TCU gets the Fiesta and Oregon gets the Peach.
semi-finals
Picks up. Jan. 9
- Cotton bowl: no. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 LSU/no. 10 Clemson vs. 3 TCU/No. 6 Tennessee/No. 11 Ole Miss, 7:30 p.m
Free. January 10
- Orange: no. 1 Georgia/No. 8 USC/No. 9 Alabama vs. 4 Oregon/No. 5 Michigan/No. 12 Tulane, 7:30 p.m
The commissioners have not officially determined the dates for the semifinals, but they should be at least a week later than the quarterfinals, and the CFP would avoid scheduling them before the NFL’s Wild Card weekend (from 11 to 13 January). That probably means placing one on Thursday night and the other on Friday night.
The CFP board’s announcement said that “the top finishers will receive preferred position in the Playoff semifinal games.” That would depend on which teams win their quarterfinals, but if No. 1 Georgia were to advance, Miami is closer than Arlington.
My. Jan. 20
- National Championship Game at Atlanta, 7:30 p.m
The title game is expected to remain on Monday night as the NFL’s divisional round has a handle on potential weekend dates. Atlanta had already been selected by the CFP as the site for the 2025 national championship game, and is expected to remain so, although the game will now likely be played two weeks later than originally planned.
And here’s how we predict the tournament will play out in the quarterfinals and beyond:
- No. 9 Alabama beats No. 8 USC
- No. 5 Michigan tops No. 12 Tulane
- No. 6 Tennessee beats No. 11 Ole Miss
- No. 7 LSU beats No. 10 Clemson
- No. 1 Georgia beats No. 9 Alabama
- No. 5 Michigan beats No. 4 Oregon
- No. 6 Tennessee beats No. 3 TCU
- No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 7 LSU
- No. 1 Georgia beats No. 5 Michigan
- No. 6 Tennessee beats No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 1 Georgia tops No. 6 Tennessee
Check out last week’s field here.
(Top photo: Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)