Net migration to the UK reached a record high of more than half a million people in the year to June 2022, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday.
The increase in long-term arrivals to the UK was driven by a post-pandemic uptick in international study and by inflows of Ukrainian and Afghan refugees and Hong Kong residents. Overseas recruitment by UK employers, in particular the NHS, also contributed.
“Brexit has not reduced net migration. . . The end of free movement does not mean that the UK is closed to migrants; it just opens up in a different way,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London. But he added that future flows were unlikely to remain at current levels and that it was too soon to say whether global work-related migration would increase.
The data showed immigration reached 1.1 million in the 12 months to June, with emigration of 560,000, bringing net immigration to 504,000. That’s roughly triple the net immigration total from the previous year, when the pandemic weighed on international travel, and double the historical average.
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The increase is at odds with the government’s stated goal of reducing net immigration, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed earlier this week, rejecting calls from business leaders to ease visa rules.
Downing Street said on Thursday that Sunak remained “fully committed to reducing the overall figures”, adding “there are some unique and unprecedented circumstances which are having a significant impact on these statistics”. Number 10 added that the Prime Minister had “not put a specific deadline” on reducing immigration.
Jay Lindop, director of the ONS’s Center for International Migration, said an “unprecedented” series of global events, including the end of coronavirus lockdowns, the post-Brexit transition, the war in Ukraine and the resettlement of Afghans and British nationals from Hong Kong. All had contributed to “record long-term immigration levels.” That meant it was too early to say whether inland migration would continue, he added.
The ONS said Thursday’s estimates were provisional and experimental because they were based on a new methodology, based on administrative data collected by different government departments. However, the figures provide the most comprehensive indication yet of how post-Brexit changes to UK migration policy are affecting the population.
Greg Thwaites, director of research at the Resolution Foundation, said the data suggested migration patterns had “changed fundamentally after Brexit”, with 51,000 more EU citizens leaving the UK than arriving in ‘year until June.
The ONS said that of the 1.1 million people who came to stay in Britain long-term, 704,000 were from outside the EU, an increase of 379,000 on the previous year. The net migration figure of 504,000 compares with official estimates that net migration would settle at just over 200,000 a year.
If migration continues at higher levels, increasing the size of the UK workforce, it would have implications for the economy and public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility said last week that an update to its net migration forecast was the only factor adding “materially” to the UK’s potential growth outlook over the next five years.
However, both the Home Office and independent experts said the latest figures were not a reliable guide to future trends, with immigration likely to slow and emigration to increase over the next few years.
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Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, said the unusually high levels of immigration had been driven by humanitarian routes, a surge in international studies and high demand for staff in the NHS , with political decisions made as a result of Brexit playing a minor role. .
“We cannot assume they represent a ‘new normal,’ and it would be rash to make major policy decisions based on these numbers alone,” he said.
The ONS also revised down its migration estimates for the previous two years. It now puts net migration for the year to June 2020 at 88,000, a total that grew to 173,000 for the year to June 2021.
The ONS said the fastest growth in visa issuance over the past year was for students. Many of these will leave the UK at the end of their courses, although a recent relaxation of visa rules could allow them to stay and work longer when they graduate than in previous years.
Plans for Ukrainians, Afghans and Hong Kong residents accounted for 140,000 of the total net migration. But the figures do not include people who arrived clandestinely.
Quarterly statistics on visa issuance released separately by the Home Office on Thursday confirmed the big picture painted by the ONS data. It also showed that 44,500 people arrived in small boats across the Channel in the year to September 2022, almost half of them in the three months to September.
Home Office figures showed 72,000 asylum applications were made in the year to September, an 88% increase on the previous year. However, the number of initial decisions on asylum applications rose by only 11 percent, causing a backlog of unprocessed applications to widen to 143,000.
Additional reporting by Sebastian Payne