Tropical Storm Ian was located about 270 kilometers south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, at 11 a.m. Saturday and was moving west at about 15 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The forecast shows Ian “as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf as it approaches the west coast of Florida,” after passing briefly over Cuba, the center said Friday. Much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including the Eastern Panhandle, could be at risk.
Forecast models for Saturday morning vary depending on where Ian may make landfall along the Florida coast. The European model shows land near Fort Myers Wednesday afternoon, while the North American model shows land near the Big Bend region of the state Friday morning.
The official hurricane center track splits the difference between the models, showing landfall near Tampa on Wednesday night.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday expanded a 24-county emergency order to include the entire state, citing “the above conditions, which are expected to constitute a major disaster.”
“The Florida Division of Emergency Management, working with the National Hurricane Center to evaluate weather forecasts, has determined that there is a continuing risk of dangerous storm surge, heavy rain, flash flooding, wind strong, hazardous seas and isolated tornadic activity for Florida. Peninsula and parts of Florida’s Big Bend, North Florida and Northeast Florida,” the order states.
Tropical storm force winds could begin to affect Southwest Florida early Tuesday, with a chance of making landfall on Wednesday.
After strengthening overnight, the storm, formerly known as Tropical Depression Nine, has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and is expected to reach hurricane status over the next two days as it approaches the Cayman Islands early Monday. . Additional strengthening is expected as the system approaches and crosses western Cuba Monday evening.
As it re-emerges into the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the storm is possible to reach major hurricane status with winds of 111 mph (178 km/h) or higher.
“Ian is likely to be near major hurricane intensity as it approaches western Cuba,” the hurricane center said. “Since Ian is not expected to remain in Cuba for long, little weakening is expected due to this terrestrial interaction.”
If it strengthens to a Category 3 or higher before reaching Florida, it would be the first major hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Michael in 2018, which was a monster Category 5 storm when it slammed into the panhandle of Florida. Michael also experienced rapid intensification before landfall, a phenomenon that has become more likely as ocean temperatures warm due to the climate crisis.
The Cayman Islands government has issued a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Islands. The Government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian and provide additional data later Saturday, according to the center.
DeSantis called for federal emergency assistance Friday in anticipation of the threat when he declared a state of emergency for two dozen counties. Under the statewide emergency order, members of the Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby pending orders.
The governor urged those in the storm’s potential path to prepare.
“This storm has the potential to become a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations,” DeSantis said in a news release. “We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to monitor the potential impacts of this storm.”
Forecasters are asking residents to prepare
It’s been a slow start to what was expected to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one storm has made landfall in a US territory, and no hurricanes have made landfall or threatened contiguous states.
Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics appear to have reawakened, and forecasters are concerned that people have let their guard down.
“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has picked up speed,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.
“People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Hurricane Center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN. “But really, the season is still going on. We’re still in September; we’ve still got October to go. Anything that forms in the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we have to continue to watch very closely.”
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
Either way, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other Gulf Coast states, pay attention to updated forecasts this weekend through early next week.