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New projections from the United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs show that the world population is expected to reach 8 billion on November 15, although population growth is the slowest in decades, with rates falling below 1 percent by 2020.
Released Monday, the World Population Prospects report reports that India will surpass China as the most populous country in the world by 2023, a change, in part, due to China’s aging population and its history of restricting births.
According to India’s local census, the country’s population was 1.210 billion in 2011. The government had postponed the 2021 census due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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The population trends described in the report show that, in most parts of the world, death outweighs life.
The population of 61 countries is expected to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, with the exception of eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
Other recent studies by the United Nations have shown that by the end of the century, Africa will be the only continent to experience population growth, with 13 of the world’s 20 largest urban areas projected.
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With recent reductions in fertility, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean will continue to be dominated by a large proportion of people of working age between 25 and 64 years.
This change, coined as the “demographic dividend,” shows that countries are likely to experience accelerated economic growth per capita, although a growing number of aging residents could pose problems in places where access to health care is scarce, as the burden will fall on the worker. old citizens to occupy most of the care for the elderly.
“Rapid population growth makes poverty eradication, the fight against hunger and malnutrition and increased coverage of health and education systems more difficult,” said Liu Zhenmin, Undersecretary General of the UN for Economic and Social Affairs. “On the contrary, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will help reduce fertility levels and slow the growth of the world’s population.”
Coronavirus also plays a role in population stagnation.
From January 2020 to December 2021, 14.9 million people died from covid-related problems, according to the World Health Organization. Global life expectancy dropped to 71 years from 72.8 in 2019. Covid was also likely to produce short-term reductions in pregnancies and births. And with more restrictions on cross-border activity, migration rates have also plummeted, a key driver for population growth in developing countries.