The dispute over the global warming target leaves the UN climate agreement in jeopardy

The outcome of key UN climate talks hinged on negotiations on global warming targets on Saturday, after the EU made a dramatic threat to walk away from the COP27 summit in the early hours of the day.

National negotiators said progress was being made on the previously stalled issue of “loss and damage” financing from rich countries for poorer nations suffering the effects of climate change.

But Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s climate minister, said no deal would be approved unless it included measures to “keep 1.5 alive,” a phrase that became the mantra of the COP26 talks in ‘last year in Glasgow and refers to a goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement: to keep global warming well below 2°C since pre-industrial times, and ideally 1.5°C.

“We don’t want 1.5C to die here today,” said EU climate chief Frans Timmermans.

A group of countries known as the “high ambition coalition”, which includes the UK and Germany, said both aspects should be reflected in the final deal.

The summit was due to end on Friday but was extended into the weekend as negotiators disagreed on key issues.

“Everything is on the table, these are big bets, capital is being called,” said one European diplomat.

The question of how countries would step up their emissions cuts remained up for grabs on Saturday, fueling concerns among some negotiators that the 1.5C target could be in jeopardy.

“We would rather have no decision than a bad decision,” Timmermans told reporters in Sharm el-Sheikh.

“All the ministers … like myself, we are ready to walk if we don’t have an outcome that does justice to what the world is waiting for, which is that we do something about this climate crisis,” he said.

Sun Zhen, China’s Deputy Director-General for Climate Change, is at the COP talks. China is one of the countries that resists the EU’s proposals © AP

China and Saudi Arabia were among countries resisting further action to cut emissions, as well as the EU’s proposal on “loss and damage” funding for the most vulnerable nations, the people said with knowledge of the discussions.

Although climate COPs are always contentious and rarely end on time, it is unusual for a large group of Western countries like the EU to make a last-minute threat to walk away.

“No one should underestimate” the EU’s threat to leave, said Romina Pourmokhtari, Sweden’s climate and environment minister. “There is nobody here who is willing to go back to our countries and explain to them why we took a step back.”

The blog has stressed the importance of building on last year’s Glasgow Climate Pact, which included a commitment to reduce the use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel.

COP27 President Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s foreign minister, said on Saturday that the draft text of the final agreement would keep the 1.5C target alive while taking a “holistic approach to face the challenges of climate change”.

Shoukry said there was “equal dissatisfaction across all sectors” but insisted the “vast majority” of parties would find a basis for an agreement.

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“There’s never a perfect solution, but there’s an effort I’ve made to provide the foundation on which we can move forward,” Shoukry said. “Reaching a point of convergence takes effort.”

There were also concerns about how the Egyptian presidency was handling the summit. “I’ve never experienced anything like this: non-transparent, unpredictable and chaotic,” said one delegate.

The countries’ negotiating teams had only a short time to review the updated texts of several key outstanding issues early in the morning; this was “not a regular procedure”, an EU official said.

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