Iain Duncan Smith, Dominic Raab and Theresa Villiers are among a swathe of Tory MPs who risk losing their seats if the Tories face a resurgent populist party led by Nigel Farage alongside a Labor swing at the next election , according to experts.
Their constituencies are among the hundreds of Conservatives in which the Brexit Party did not stand in the 2019 general election, but already slim majorities would be destroyed by UK reform candidates who attract even a relatively small number of voters
They only include more than 30 seats held by the Tories, many in the so-called “blue wall” areas of the south of England, where the sitting MP already holds a majority of less than 10%, according to data analysis by the Library of the House of Commons.
“There are a significant number of seats where the Conservative majority over Labor or the Lib Dems is not large, and there was no Brexit Party candidate last time. If a Brexit Party type candidate stands next time, the Tory MP is struggling even before any change to the local opposition,” said Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester, author of The 2019 British General Election and Brexitland.
A return to front-line politics by Farage, now a GB News broadcaster but who has hinted he could return, is the necessary warning from Ford, and others such as Professor John Curtice, for a scenario in which Reform is able to capitalize. recent polls, such as a YouGov finding that puts the party at 9%.
“UK reform needs Farage to come back, and if he did, given that there is an immigration problem to exploit, the Tories would have good reason to worry,” said Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. , who added that Reform UK was the means by which Brexit-backing voters could register their displeasure at Tory economic mismanagement while remaining true to their Leave credentials.
Farage is listed at Companies House as a “person of significant control” of Reform UK, which is registered as a limited company and has been run by businessman Richard Tice since March 2021.
However, the fall of Boris Johnson and skepticism about the Brexiter credentials of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, who backed Remain, have fueled speculation of a Farage return as a small but steady flow of voters and disillusioned former Tory members. join Reform UK.
While the party claims thousands of Tories have joined, a weekly trickle appears to be at least evident on Facebook pages where Tory defectors are announced and congratulated.
Sources close to Farage say he is weighing up whether to return imminently or wait until a Labor government moves to introduce proportional representation, which would pave the way for MPs from a new far-right party such as Reform UK or a rebranded version .
Tice did not rule out a Farage return when the Guardian put forward the scenario of the latter becoming “chief executive” with Tice as “chairman”. The former Ukip leader was “a busy guy with GB News”, Tice said, adding: “No one is more furious about the state of the country than someone like Nigel who spent 25 years of his life trying to come to Brexit to present his platform. of opportunity and then see others squander it.”
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However, he was unequivocal in stating that Reform UK was “absolutely committed” to standing everywhere except Northern Ireland.
“The best thing for the country would be if we get rid of the Tories and I hope we’re seeing the death of the last majority Tory government in my lifetime,” said Tice, who he predicted would be “the key”. be the introduction of proportional representation in three or four years.
Reform UK has previously planned to roll out a range of policies over the coming weeks to try to build on the electoral momentum, despite the disappointing result of the recent Chester by-election in which the party only secured 2.74% of the vote .