Gas is spilling into the Baltic Sea from three separate leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, Denmark’s energy agency confirmed on Tuesday, amid claims by seismologists in Sweden and Denmark of two strong spikes in the ‘underwater activity, possibly indicating explosions, and speculation about possible sabotage.
A seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm, near where the leaks occurred, recorded two spikes on Monday, the day the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines suffered dramatic pressure drops, the center said. German geological research GFZ.
A Danish military flight over the leaks brought back stunning images of the ruptures, including one showing a kilometre-wide zone of gas bubbles at the sea’s surface.
The seismograph recorded near silence until just after midnight GMT (2am local time), when there was a spike representing a tremor in the ground followed by a hissing continuous waveform. The pattern repeated at 5pm GMT.
Amid speculation about sabotage, suspicion immediately turned to the possible culprits, with fingers pointing to Russia, whose pipelines were hit, suggesting a new weaponization of Europe’s energy supply amid of the conflict in Ukraine. Not least it was seen as a possible message about the vulnerability of other marine gas infrastructure.
“There are some indications that this is deliberate damage. You have to ask yourself: who would benefit from this?” a European security source told Reuters.
GFZ did not want to decide whether the recorded tremors could have been the result of an explosion, but scientists at the research center ruled out the possibility that the leaks could have been caused by earthquakes.
“There was a spike and then a regular noise,” said a GFZ spokesman, Josef Zens. “We can’t say if this could be a gas leak.”
A seismologist quoted by Swedish television suggested the activity could have been the result of explosions. Björn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN, which measures Swedish earthquakes and explosions, told the SVT television channel that the event, one of which registered as 2.3 on the Richter scale, could have been caused by an underwater detonation.
“You can clearly see the waves bouncing from the bottom to the surface. There is no doubt that it was an explosion. We even had a station in Gnosjö that picked it up,” said Lund, who also lectures at seismology at Uppsala University.
Earlier, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said sabotage could not be ruled out.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the news “very worrying” and said “no option can be ruled out right now,” including sabotage.
“This is very worrying news,” he added, calling for a swift investigation. “In fact, we are talking about some damage of an unclear nature to the gas pipeline in the economic zone of Denmark.”
The steel tube itself has a wall of 4.1 cm (1.6 in) and is lined with steel-reinforced concrete up to 11 cm thick. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tons, which increases to 24-25 tons after the application of concrete.
Among those pointing to the war in Ukraine was Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who was speaking at the opening of a new gas pipeline between Norway and Poland. “Today we faced an act of sabotage. We don’t know all the details of what happened, but we clearly see that this is an act of sabotage, related to the next step in the escalation of the situation in Ukraine,” Morawiecki said.
Poland’s foreign minister was more forthcoming, suggesting the damage could be an act of provocation on behalf of the Kremlin.
“Unfortunately, our eastern partner is constantly pursuing an aggressive political course,” Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz said in Warsaw. “If he is capable of an aggressive military course in Ukraine, it is clear that acts of provocation in Western Europe cannot be ruled out either.”
A senior Ukrainian official also called it a Russian attack to destabilize Europe, without providing evidence.
British sources said they believed it might not be possible to determine what happened with certainty.
A UK informant speculated that any explosion was unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because its presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow waters of the Baltic. The sections of the pipes are between 80 and 110 meters deep.
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An alternative scenario could be that the mines were dropped from a disguised merchant ship days or weeks before the attack, then remotely detonated to cause the explosions. But the latter scenario was entirely hypothetical, they stressed.
The day of drama began when the Danish energy agency said it had found leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline northeast of the island of Bornholm, and a third in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Swedish waters in southeast of the island. “This is not a small crack. This is a very large hole,” the energy agency said.
Underscoring the importance of the event, Bloomberg energy and commodities commentator Javier Blas described the region’s undersea pipelines as one of Europe’s most important strategic assets. “Undersea pipelines linking North Sea gas fields, and then Norway to the rest of the continent and the UK are among the most strategic assets right now for Europe. Time for maximum protection. Cyber attacks against assets energy are also a key risk for Europe,” Blas tweeted.
Undersea pipelines linking the gas fields of the North Sea, and then Norway with the rest of the continent and the UK are among the most strategic assets now for Europe. Time of maximum protection. Cyber-attacks against energy assets are also a key risk for Europe.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 27, 2022
A five-mile shipping exclusion zone has been established around Bornholm and flights below 1,000 meters in the area have been banned. Methane, the main component of natural gas, partially dissolves in water, is non-toxic and poses no danger when inhaled in limited amounts.
“Rupture of gas pipelines is extremely rare,” Danish authorities said in a statement. “Therefore, we see reason to increase the level of preparedness as a result of the incidents that we have seen over the past 24 hours.”
Nord Stream AG, the operator of the pipeline, had reported on Monday morning an unexpected overnight pressure drop of 105 to 7 bar in Nord Stream 2, which is full of gas but was canceled by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, shortly before the invasion of Russia. Ukraine
A further drop in pressure was reported Monday afternoon in Nord Stream 1, which Russia shut down indefinitely in early September, initially saying it needed repairs.
With three separate leaks almost simultaneously, with some distance between them, it was “hard to imagine” that it was a random accident, Frederiksen told a brief news conference during a visit to Poland, where he was participating in the opening of the Baltic pipeline . pipeline
Anonymous sources in German government circles also said the simultaneity of the three leaks made an accident unlikely. “Our imagination cannot come up with a scenario other than a deliberate attack,” a person involved in the investigation told German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel.
News magazine Der Spiegel, citing government sources, said officials were not ruling out sabotage, designed to cause more uncertainty in Europe’s energy markets.
With no gas flowing through any of the pipelines since the start of the month, German authorities have been quick to reassure people that the leaks will not affect their plan to fill gas storage tanks in time for the winter.
Environmental NGOs said the leaks could cause large-scale damage to the environment. “As soon as methane gas leaves the sea surface and enters the atmosphere, it will contribute massively to the greenhouse effect,” said Sascha Müller-Kraenner of the pressure group Environmental Action Germany.