The Seattle Mariners scored in the top of the first inning in Game 1 of their ALDS matchup against the top-seeded Houston Astros. They scored three times in the top of the second and held a 6-2 lead midway through the fourth. It was 7-3 going into the eighth. It was still 7-5 with two outs in the ninth inning. And yet, the Mariners still lost.
They controlled the entire game until there were two outs in the ninth, even as the Astros’ stellar offense fell apart. The Mariners should still have won. Just look at the Win Expectation Chart:
This is as steep as you’ll ever see. Over a cliff, in fact.
What happened? Well, the Astros offense helped. Yordan Alvarez being the second scariest hitter on the planet behind Aaron Judge also helped. But the sailors’ decision making was pretty suspect.
Alvarez’s home run came off Robbie Ray, a starting pitcher who was called up in relief only to face Alvarez.
So why did the sailors make this decision? Let’s break things down.
Reasons to bring Ray
1. He is left-handed. That’s all. Ray, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, has been much tougher on lefties throughout his career, holding them to a .212/.260/.387 line this season. He gave up just four home runs to other lefties, though it was in just 137 at-bats.
If the Mariners really wanted the platoon advantage over Alvarez, it was Ray or Matthew Boyd. There are no other lefties on the roster. All of the Mariners’ top relievers are right-handed. Ray started Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays and was still called up Tuesday.
Of course, have you ever seen Alvarez’s splits? It basically hits both sides the same. These are the lines of his career:
vs. LHP: .303/.381/.582vs. RHP: .292/.386/.594
He hit .321 against lefties this season!
If you care about the history of the matchup, Alvarez was 1-for-3 with two walks against Ray before this one. It’s too small a sample to really matter, but it wasn’t like there was a ton of success history for the Rays coming into the game.
Reasons not to bring Ray
1. It’s a headline. Starting pitchers are used to longer, more extended warmups. All players are creatures of habit anyway, so it’s always risky to carry a starter with relief. Some handle it well, but you never know until you try. Ray has only appeared in relief four times in his career, three of those coming in his rookie year in 2014 and one in 2020. That’s it.
2. Gives up a lot of home runs. Ray finished second in the AL in home runs allowed this season with 32. Even last year, when he won the Cy Young, he was fourth with 33 allowed. Alvarez is one of the best power hitters in baseball and exactly one play beats you: a home run.
3. He hasn’t shot well lately. Ray had a 5.27 ERA with eight home runs allowed in 27 1/3 innings over his last five regular-season starts. He then coughed up four runs on six hits, including two home runs, in three innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
4. The Astros have owned it. Ray made three starts against the Astros this season. He gave up 23 hits and 13 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings (10.97 ERA, 2.81 WHIP). Astros hitters slashed .442/.509/.865 against him. Small sample? I suppose. However, there is nothing so encouraging here.
5. It’s a type of fastball. Ray throws fastballs nearly 40 percent of the time. This is their most frequent offer. Alvarez was the second most valuable hitter against fastballs this season (behind Judge, not surprisingly), hitting .355 with a .752 slugging percentage against the heater. The homer came with a pen, but I’m just talking about the thought process of bringing Ray in.
On the surface alone, I have five pretty good reasons not to use Ray when there was a reason, however flimsy, to use him. It was a no-brainer to avoid pulling the trigger on the move.
“We talked about the series coming up,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said after the game. “We talked about it before the game today. I looked at it in the seventh inning and I was like, ‘Hey, this could happen.’ So that was the plan. At the end of the day, you have a plan, we still have to execute”.
Is true. It was the plan and they had to execute the plan better. But it’s also pretty easy to argue that it was a bad plan.