Senior Ukrainian officials say Vladimir Putin is preparing for a major new offensive in the new year, despite a series of humiliating setbacks on the battlefield for Russia in recent months.
In an interview with The Guardian, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that while Ukraine was now able to successfully defend itself against Russian missile attacks targeting key infrastructure, including the energy grid , evidence that the Kremlin was preparing a new broad offensive. .
Reznikov’s comments echoed similar remarks made in The Economist this week, including by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy, the head of the armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and the head of the ground forces, the Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii.
The briefings appeared to be part of a broad and coordinated effort to warn against complacency among Western allies and highlight the continuing threat Russia poses to Ukraine.
While Reznikov suggested a new offensive could take place in February, the other senior officials indicated they believed it could come in January.
Referring to Russia’s partial mobilization of some 300,000 troops, Reznikov suggested that while half, often after receiving minimal training, were being used to bolster Moscow’s forces after a series of setbacks in battlefield, the rest were preparing more thoroughly for future offensives.
“The second part of the mobilization, about 150,000, began their training courses in different fields,” Reznikov said, speaking of Russia’s mobilization campaign, which began in October.
“The [draftees] take a minimum of three months to prepare. It means they are trying to start the next wave of offense probably in February, like last year. That’s his plan.”
The warnings come amid evidence of Putin’s continued desire to continue the war next year, including missile procurement efforts in Iran, and analysis from Russian commentators suggesting the Kremlin sees no way to withdraw from the conflict.
Reznikov said he hoped Russia would continue to mobilize its citizens beyond the current partial mobilization, describing the main tactic of Russian commanders as a “meat grinder” in which they throw as many bodies as possible into a battle with the ‘hope they will overwhelm the little Ukrainian. strength
“The Kremlin is trying to find new solutions [for] how to achieve victory,” Reznikov said. In The Economist, General Zaluzhnyi made a similar warning, dismissing some Western claims that Putin’s mobilization had largely been a failure.
“The Russian mobilization has worked,” Zaluzhnyi said. “They are preparing 100%.” He added that a major new Russian attack could come “in February, at best in March and at worst in late January.”
In another briefing on Thursday, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also warned against complacency after recent Russian military setbacks.
“We and the world must not relax, because the ultimate goal of the Russian Federation is to conquer all of Ukraine, and then it can move on,” Maliar said.
The assessment that Russia may be preparing a new full-scale campaign against Ukraine in the coming months flies in the face of recent intelligence gathering and analysis that has suggested the pace of the war – and Russian efforts – they will slow down through the depths of the Ukrainian winter. .
With Ukrainian troops training in several Western countries and foreign-trained soldiers seeded in units across the country, Reznikov said Ukraine’s hybrid tactics, well-trained troops and roster of desires of arms which he expects to receive from the allies, would enable him to withstand further attacks.
“If it was meat grinder against meat grinder, we would lose. It was a mistake to perceive us as a small Soviet army [that] will fight against a large Soviet army. Certainly, a large Soviet army would win and a small Soviet army would lose, but we are not a Soviet army.”
Speaking hours after another mass drone attack in Kyiv on Wednesday, when Ukraine’s air defense said it shot down all 13 drones that were launched, Reznikov said he believed Ukraine was now winning against Russia in the air
Russia began attacking Ukrainian energy facilities on a regular basis in the fall after Moscow’s forces were pushed out of Kharkiv and the Crimean bridgehead.
The goal was to weaken Ukraine to increase the chances of success on the battlefield. Since then, however, Ukraine has demonstrated an increasing ability to shoot down rockets and drones.
A police officer stands next to part of a Russian cruise missile shot down by Ukrainian air defenses in the Kyiv region earlier this month. Photo: National Police of Ukraine/Reuters
Reznikov said Ukraine’s air defense systems had increased their efficiency from 50 percent at the start of the war to 80 percent by December. He also gave the example of the previous bombardment on December 5, when Ukraine shot down 60 of the 70 rockets launched by Russia.
Ukraine has also ordered new weapons systems, including better air defenses, although it appears to have increased its targeting of bases in Russia, including with drones, attacks on which Reznikov declined to comment.
Ukraine was using a combination of air defense systems provided by its partners, Soviet-era systems and repurposed mobile machine guns to combat the threat, Reznikov said. On Tuesday, CNN reported that US officials had agreed to send Ukraine powerful and effective US-made Patriot air defense systems that Ukraine has been asking for for months.
The United States had previously worried that the long-range Patriot defense systems, which can travel up to 60 miles, would prompt an escalation from Russia.
Ukraine has had to constantly demonstrate to its partners that it is worth investing in its military through victories on the battlefield. Reznikov gave the example of how Ukraine sank the Moskva warship with a Ukrainian-made Neptune system in April and how each victory has led to more supplies.
“When we used a Ukrainian invention, the Neptune, and sank the battleship Moskva…after that, we have [US-made] Harpoons to defend our sea line,” he said.
The streak of victories had created something that transcended diplomatic trust between Ukraine and its partners, Reznikov said.
“It’s one more thing: you became a believer in us and started investing, not only, I would say, not only weapons in Ukraine, [but] because you want to see the new Ukraine after this victory, not the old Soviet Ukraine”.
The UK and other Western allies are in the process of training thousands of Ukrainian troops, from rookies to those who are already seasoned soldiers. Reznikov claims that Russia, meanwhile, “uses only Soviet systems and training courses.”
The comments came as fighting continued on both the southern and eastern fronts. In the south, Russian airstrikes on Thursday killed two people in the city of Kherson and left it without power, Ukrainian officials said, in the latest shelling since Kyiv retook the city last month.
The deputy head of the president’s office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said on social media that Russian forces had shelled the city center.