In an impressive blockbuster, the Padres have agreed to acquire All-Star shortstop Josh Hader from the Brewers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan ( Twitter link ). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported a few minutes ago that the Brewers were closing in on a deal with Hader.
The Padres are sending their own closer, Taylor Rogers, to Milwaukee back in the deal, Passan added. Milwaukee will also acquire right-hander Dinelson Lamet, pitching prospect Robert Gasser and infield prospect Esteury Ruiz.
It’s a big hit for the Padres, and while it’s a real surprise to see Milwaukee move in while holding a three-game lead in the National League Central, the reasoning behind the trade is pretty simple. Hader’s $11 million salary figures to jump north of $15 million next season in his final year in control of the club, and a generally budget-conscious Brewers club may not be willing to to devote $15-17 million to a single reliever when that represents such a significant portion of the overall payroll.
The Brewers, of course, could have held onto Hader in the winter and made him available at the time, but the allure of landing Hader for multiple postseason pushes undeniably allowed them to seek a higher price right now. To that end, they are acquiring a high-end closer in Rogers, who, like Hader, has struggled of late but has an excellent track record spanning multiple seasons. Milwaukee also adds a high-octane arm in Lamet, though he’s been plagued by injuries, and two of the Padres’ top ten prospects in Gasser and Ruiz, which breathes much-needed life into a farm system that isn’t seen as a especially strong
It’s the kind of trade we’re used to seeing smaller payroll clubs like the Rays and Rangers make on a regular basis: cashing in the trade value of a coveted player when he has several seasons of club control, while simultaneously fill that spot on the list with other greats. league help It’s an immediate downgrade from the overall roster, but this kind of simultaneous buying and selling has been one of the keys to keeping Tampa Bay, Cleveland and even Milwaukee competitive even though they rarely can spend the top of the category. market money
Hader, 28, has a career-worst 4.24 ERA, though that mark was inflated by an unusual pair of back-to-back collapses earlier this month, in which he was struck out by an astonishing nine earned runs in a third of an innings. Outside of that pair of disastrous outings, Hader has a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He didn’t even allow a run this season until June 7 and has struck out a whopping 41.8% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate.
Since Hader’s debut in 2017, no one in baseball has surpassed his whopping 44.1% strikeout rate, or even come particularly close. (Craig Kimbrel is second at 40.6%). Hader’s 2.48 ERA in that time is eighth best among 309 qualified relievers, and no one has topped his 19.5% swinging strike rate.
The name following Hader in that massive swing-attack role, now former teammate Devin Williams, may also have something to do with the current trade. The Brewers surely wouldn’t have been so comfortable moving Hader if it weren’t for Williams’ own breakthrough as one of the sport’s most dominant relief pitchers. Armed with a lethal changeup (dubbed “the air master”), Williams ranks fourth in hitting percentage (39.9%), second in swinging percentage (18.6%) and second in ERA (1.94) among the same subset of qualified relievers just mentioned. as for Hader.
There’s certainly an argument to be made that Milwaukee should have simply kept Hader and pulled out that dominant duo for the rest of the season and the upcoming playoff run, but the combination of immediate and high-profile replacements (Rogers, Lamet) and the long – The term value of adding a pair of new high-end prospects to the system proved too enticing for president of baseball operations David Stearns, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the Milwaukee staff.
As for this collection of newly acquired talent, the Brewers will surely hope that Rogers can shake off the recent slump that has plagued him over the past two months. Rogers, 2018-21 with the Twins, wasn’t far behind Hader on the list of the best left-handed relievers in the sport. He worked 197 2/3 frames during that time, pitching to a 2.91 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate, a 4.9% walk rate and 50 saves. However, a torn tendon in his pitching hand cut Rogers out last season and he was sent from the Twins to San Diego on the eve of Opening Day.
Rogers took to his new surroundings brilliantly, pitching to a commanding 0.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio over his first 20 1/3 innings. Since then, however, he has been hit to an 8.14 ERA in a nearly identical 21-inning stretch. Rogers still has an outstanding 25-to-5 K/BB ratio during this ugly stretch, allowing just one home run along the way. He’s been chased by a sky-high .429 average on balls in play this fall, but it’s still hard to overlook a stretch that has seen Rogers surrender 13 of his last 22 plate appearances.
Still, Rogers’ track record is appealing, and perhaps the Brewers have their own idea of how the lefty can get back on track. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, making Rogers a pure rental, but he’s ultra-affordable, as the Twins paid all of $700,000 of his salary in the aforementioned trade to the Padres.
Lamet, on the other hand, is another big bull that the Brewers are shopping low on. The flamethrowing right-hander was a Cy Young candidate in the shortened 2020 season, but went down with a biceps injury late in the 2020 season and missed a significant portion of the 2021 season with a series of tensions in the forearm.
Lamet has given up 13 earned runs in just 12 1/3 major league innings this season, but has been dominant in Triple-A (0.77 ERA in 11 2/3 frames). His fastball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, has dropped to an average of 95.3 mph this year. Obviously, there are plenty of red flags with Lamet, but if he can recapture anything resembling his 2020 form (2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeouts, 7.5% walks) while out of Milwaukee’s bullpen, would be a formidable addition to the relief corps both this year and next, as he is eligible for arbitration once again before free agency in the 2023-24 offseason.
More to come.