Alonso and Lindor against Machado and Soto. deGrom and Scherzer vs. Darvish and Snell.
There will be no shortage of star power in the Wild Card series between the Mets and Padres at Citi Field this weekend, with Game 1 of the best-of-three starting Friday at 8 pm ET/5 pm PT.
The Mets were forced into the Wild Card Series by an even stronger Braves team that swept them in the regular season finale and claimed the National League East title despite both teams winning 101 games . The Padres, no strangers to elite division competition, finished second to the 111-win Dodgers in the NL West, sending them to New York for the first round of the postseason. We break down all the matchups ahead of the series.
Here’s a position-by-position recap of the Mets-Padres Wild Card Series.
Neither team is particularly strong at the receiver position. For the Mets, Tomás Nido has been a good defensive catcher, with +5 frames and a fast average pop time of 1.96 seconds; he just doesn’t offer much offense (.239 batting average, .600 OPS, three homers). James McCann was supposed to provide the offense, but he has done even less, batting .195 with a .538 OPS. The Padres have a trio of catching options in Austin Nola, Luis Campusano and Jorge Alfaro, none of whom have been great defensively or offensively. But between the three of them, they probably give a little more juice to the plate than the Mets’ catchers. Maybe MLB No. 1 overall prospect Francisco Alvarez makes New York’s postseason roster and swings the catcher battle to the Mets, but for now, a slight edge to the Padres.
The Padres have gone with a combination of Brandon Drury and Wil Myers at first base; they could use josh bell there too. None of them are Pete Alonso. The rock of the Mets’ lineup, Alonso hit 40 home runs and led the Major Leagues with 131 RBIs. He started 133 games at first base and 150 in the cleanup spot. He posted a 146 OPS+. On the other hand, Myers had a 108 OPS+ this season, Drury had a 109 OPS+ after the Padres traded him, and Bell has fallen off mightily, posting a 75 OPS+ for San Diego.
The Mets will ideally have the MLB batting champion at second base in Jeff McNeil. McNeil, who hit .326 in the regular season, also gets some starts in the outfield, but Tyler Naquin can play right field against the Padres’ righty starters, and if Starling Marte and/or Darin Ruf are healthy and in the Wild series Card. roster to face Blake Snell, McNeil could go second in every series. If not, Luis Guillorme has been capable for New York all year, especially defensively. Jake Cronenworth (17 home runs, 88 RBI) was an All-Star for the second year in a row in 2022, but if it’s him vs. McNeil at second base, it goes to McNeil.
Sorry, Eduardo Escobar. Manny Machado is a huge plus for the Padres here, perhaps the biggest at any position (but read on). Machado is one of the leading NL MVP contenders along with the Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, hitting .296 with 32 home runs, 102 RBI and +8 strikeouts above average on defense. His 7.4 fWAR led the National League and was behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in all of MLB. Escobar hit 20 homers for the Mets this season, but he’s nowhere near Machado’s level.
Francisco Lindor vs. Fernando Tatis Jr. would have been one of the top matchup battles in any playoff series. But Tatis won’t play this season, so instead it’s Lindor, who has won New York with a resurgent second season there, against Ha-Seong Kim. Kim has done a good job of holding down the shortstop position in Tatis’ absence (150 games played, 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases), but he’s not the difference maker that Tatis, or Lindor, is. The Mets star finished the season with a career-high 26 home runs, 16 steals and 107 RBI while playing an excellent shortstop with an above-average +13 strikeouts.
Mark Canha had another productive season in his first year in New York, posting a .367 on-base percentage and 122 OPS+ with a major league-leading 28 hits for a Mets team that established the modern hit for – pitch record. Jurickson Profar has also been solid for the Padres, with 15 homers and a 111 OPS+, so that one is about even, but Canha has been a bit better.
The biggest question for the Padres entering the postseason is what they will do in center field. Trent Grisham is a great defender, with an above-average +13 strikeouts, and in theory is a home run threat, with 17 long balls on the season. But his offense has been nonexistent down the stretch: He batted .107 in September and October, dropping his season average to .184, well below Mendoza’s line. But if not Grisham, the Padres should go to Jose Azocar, who really is a platoon player to face lefties – and the Mets’ starters are all righties – or Myers, who is definitely not a true center fielder. The Mets, on the other hand, have the opposite of a question mark in center field: Brandon Nimmo. New York’s opening day man hit 16 homers with a 130 OPS+ on the season and has been more than capable in center (+6 outs above average).
If Juan Soto is the Juan Soto who led the Nationals to the 2017 World Series title, he’s as big a plus as Machado. Even in a “down” season by his standards in 2022, when his batting average dipped to .242, Soto still led the Majors with 135 walks compared to just 96 strikeouts, and had 27 home runs with a 149 OPS+. If he hits like he has in every other season of his career, he could lead the Padres to the World Series, too. For the Mets, if Marte can come back, at least they also have an All-Star right fielder, but even Marte is far outmatched by Soto’s peak. If Naquin is out there, the gap is even wider.
DH is also a question for the Padres because of Bell’s struggles — he hit just .192 after the trade to San Diego — which could lead them to use Myers at DH. But the Mets have their questions there, too, on the right side of their bullpen. Lefty Daniel Vogelbach will start against Padres righties, and he’s been very good in New York, posting a 139 OPS+ in 55 games (not to mention his high potential for postseason cult hero status). But against a lefty like Snell, the Mets’ options are either Ruf, who has struggled and finished the regular season on the disabled list, or a rookie like Alvarez or Mark Vientos. Since two of San Diego’s top three starters are right-handed, however (Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove), Vogelbach’s presence in the lineup for multiple games in the series gives the Mets the edge at DH.
You’d think the Mets’ elite rotation, led by Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, would have an edge against anyone. But the Braves just proved that even those three can be beaten, and the Padres, with Darvish, Snell and Musgrove, are one of the few teams with a top three that can rival New York’s. Still, getting past deGrom (3.08 ERA, 14.3 K/9) and Scherzer (2.29 ERA, 10.7 K/9) in front of the home crowd in New York will be a daunting task in a short series. You have to give this one to the Mets, even if it’s close.
This battle is as good as it gets between the opening rotations. Edwin Diaz vs. Josh Hader. Two elite closers. Hader had 36 saves this season and struck out 14.6 batters per nine innings, but he was also surprisingly vulnerable at times, posting a 5.22 ERA and a 7.31 ERA since the Padres traded for he And Diaz? Diaz is the best stopper in the world right now. He had 32 saves with a 1.31 ERA…and a staggering 17.1 K/9. He struck out more than half the batters he has faced this season. As for the bridges in the two closers, both San Diego and New York have several men capable of setting up, but some questions in middle relief. With Diaz, though, the Mets take this one.