“Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, his language in Taiwan in the official reading of the Bali Summit is possibly harsher than before.”
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Xi remains on track to take action against Taiwan in the late 2020s or 2030s, said Rudd, now president of the Asia Society.
It means Australia must stay “clear” about the potential for military conflict with China, even as it seeks to improve relations in the short term.
“The only way to avoid conflict in the medium to long term is for there to be effective deterrence of the US, allies and Taiwanese: militarily, technologically, financially, economically and of course also in foreign policy and politics.” Rudd said.
The biggest risk in the short and medium term is an “accidental war” between the United States and China, Rudd said, describing it as a “real, live danger.”
The best way for the superpowers to avoid an accidental war was through a policy of “managed strategic competition,” he said. This requires the US and China to agree on “strategic red lines” that cannot be crossed without risking military escalation.
Rudd said Australia’s challenges with China remained “formidable”, even after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s breakthrough meeting with Xi last week in Bali.
Beijing’s previous freeze on all high-level political contacts had been “unhealthy for all concerned”, he said, and the resumption of talks between leaders under the Labor party was “no small feat”.
Beijing would be well advised to lift trade sanctions on $20 billion worth of Australian goods and release journalist Cheng Lei from detention as part of the 50th anniversary of China-Australia diplomatic ties next month, he said. .
“This would pave the way for the resumption of normal diplomatic discourse on all substantive issues currently facing the bilateral relationship,” he said.
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