The number of EU citizens moving to the UK has fallen since Brexit closed the doors to low-paid workers, according to a report.
The dramatic decline in migration from the EU has hit hospitality and support services hard. But Oxford University’s Migration Observatory (MO) and ReWage, an independent think tank, have said that while Brexit “exacerbated” chronic labor shortages in Great Brittany was not the only cause.
The data shows that just 43,000 EU citizens received visas for work, family, study or other purposes in 2021, a fraction of the 230,000 to 430,000 EU citizens who came to the UK each year over the six years until March 2020, according to the National Statistics Office. (ONS) estimates.
Of those who immigrated, rather than traveling for business or pleasure, to the UK in 2021, EU citizens accounted for just 5% of the number of visas issued. “The figures available so far are therefore consistent with the possibility of a large decline in EU immigration,” says the report, titled “The end of free movement and low-wage labor in the United Kingdom”.
But he warns against blaming Brexit for the high number of vacancies in the UK, with the pandemic, early retirement among the over-50s, high levels of employment across Europe and labor shortages international
“While there is some evidence that the end of free movement has contributed to shortages in some areas of the UK labor market, it is by no means the only driver. Indeed, recruitment difficulties are not exclusive to the UK and several other countries have experienced high vacancy rates following the pandemic,” said Chris Forde, a professor at the University of Leeds and co-author of the ReWage report.
The report found that the hospitality and low-skilled sectors were most affected by the end of free movement of EU citizens to the UK. Hospitality lost 98,000 EU jobs in the two years to June 2021, and support services such as cleaning and maintenance shed 64,000 EU workers.
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“While it’s clear that ending free movement has made it harder for employers in low-wage industries to recruit staff, changing immigration policy to address shortages comes with its own set of challenges,” he said. said Madeleine Sumption, director of the MO.
The report found that some sectors were adapting to changes in migration, but noted that filling low-wage vacancies would remain a problem. Sumption described immigration as a “bit of a blunt instrument”, noting that it was “surprisingly difficult to measure shortages and figure out how to target immigration policy towards them”.
Home Office statistics show there has been a sharp increase in migration amid the easing of pandemic restrictions. The data shows that 277,069 work-related visas were granted in the year ending March 2022 (including dependents), a 129% increase on the year ending March 2021 and an increase of 50% compared to the year that ended in March 2020.
Analysis of payroll employees by nationality over a longer period, between July 2014 and June 2021, showed that agriculture was also hard hit, with the loss of 28% of EU workers, followed by hospitality with 25% and support services with 14%. The biggest fall in employment in the EU was in London, by 10% overall and 30% in the hospitality sector alone between June 2019 and June 2021.
In several sectors, such as construction and health, the number of non-EU nationals increased, but the report warns that these may not necessarily be workers arriving via the visa route, and may come from the population outside of the existing EU in the UK that came to the UK. family visas or the refugee route.
Sumption said many other factors affected supply and demand, including taxes, the minimum wage, education and training and decisions about shortage occupation lists.
Experimental data collected by the ONS suggests that the highest vacancy rates are in Scotland and London.
The report says there are “conflicting explanations” for the increase in vacancies, with the decision of people in their 50s to leave the workforce early “the biggest contributor to the shrinking size of the workforce compared to what could have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends”.