It’s hard to believe we’re back here in panic land so soon in Toronto.
Although maybe it shouldn’t be.
There’s been a tendency early this season by some to write off the Maple Leafs’ struggles as a scaled-down version of what happened last year, when they started slow and then played at a 119 pace points from November 1.
Only Colorado was better during that stretch.
However, there are several differences between this slow start and this one. For one, Auston Matthews is not coming off major surgery. On the other hand, goaltending hasn’t really been the problem it was a year ago, when Michael Hutchinson was, for some reason, still starting games.
Even more significantly, I’d say the Leafs have faced a very weak schedule, one of the easiest in the league thus far, and their underlying results in terms of puck possession and expected goals have been extremely mediocre.
They are not scoring. They are not defending well. They don’t control the game and are simply unlucky. They really are, to put it charitably, right now.
The easy part of the Leafs’ schedule is also over starting this weekend, with back-to-back matchups against Boston and Carolina. The rest of the way, the Leafs have one of the toughest runs of any team.
If they can’t fix some of those that affect them relatively quickly, major changes will be needed.
This isn’t really news if you’ve been following the recent firestorms here in town. Several media outlets and betting sites have had Sheldon Keefe on the hot seat since the start of the campaign, and this latest four-game losing streak has only pushed that conversation up to 11.
And I get it. The coach is often the first to come out in situations like this. They’re more disposable than big-money stars, especially in a tight cap environment where about two-thirds of the league is on long-term injured reserve or within half a million of the 82.5 cap millions of dollars.
Keefe hasn’t been perfect in his tenure with the Leafs, but he has a 669 point percentage, one of the highest in league history, and led them to a 115-point campaign a year ago. He also isn’t responsible for much of the mess on the roster, including a lack of scoring options in the bottom six and a lack of defensive depth with Jake Muzzin, Timothy Liljegren and Jordie Benn.
I think they should give him more time to right the ship. And they should also give him more to work with.
That brings us to the main alternative to firing the coach in early November: a trade.
While the start of the season isn’t the best time to scour the NHL’s trade market, and the Leafs will be coming from a position of weakness given their losing streak, GM Kyle Dubas has one thing on his mind. please With Muzzin on LTIR, quite possibly for the rest of the season from what I’m hearing, Toronto can put a big chunk of his $5.625 million salary to work on the open market.
Some of that will have to be assigned to Liljegren, who just played a couple of games with the Marlies over the weekend as part of a rehab assignment. But even in a worst-case scenario, the Leafs will have an extra $4 million in financial flexibility, something the vast majority of likely teams in the playoff race simply don’t have.
At best, Dubas could look to trade some of his underperforming players as part of any move, freeing up even more salary cap space.
Some of the best candidates to go and change things could include Justin Holl ($2 million), Pierre Engvall ($2.25 million), Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5 million) or Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1 million of dollars).
If they keep losing, there may be even bigger names in the mix.
However, even without subtracting a significant piece from the roster, the Leafs are now in a position to be difference-makers in a deal, assuming some of what they give up consists of prospects or picks.
(D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)
Jakob Chychrun is a name that is out there, although given that he has almost exclusively played on the left side and with his recent injury history, there are some buyer beware factors. (The coyotes’ asking price is also high.)
John Klingberg is an interesting idea, with the Ducks in freefall. He’s only on a one-year contract and could help with Toronto’s puck movement issues on the right side.
Other types of pending UFAs the Leafs could target? Vladislav Gavrikov in Columbus is very intriguing considering how strong he is defensively. Damon Severson, Scott Mayfield, Shayne Gostisbehere, Dmitry Kulikov, Justin Braun, Kevin Shattenkirk and Troy Stecher are also potential hires, and all can play the right side.
Defense is the most important thing with how badly some of the Leafs’ Blues are reeling, but they could also deploy their cap space to find scoring help for the bottom six forwards or try to add another goaltender to improve third-rower Erik Kallgren.
With the injuries they’ve had early on, the Leafs have been fielding a lineup that’s coming in roughly $10 million under the cap on some nights. Recouping at least some of that by spending Muzzin’s salary will be vital over the next few months.
The Leafs have had luck making these midseason deals and a shot in the arm going back to when they added Muzzin nearly four years ago. They also acquired Jack Campbell in a similarly complicated situation and bolstered their blue line twice a year ago by adding Ilya Lyubushkin and Mark Giordano.
it can be done
But in addition to improving the roster, the other positive of going the trade route is the message it sends, especially if it involves sending a longtime teammate, even someone who doesn’t play in the lineup. The message is, in part, that the Leafs won’t just fire the coach at the first sign of trouble.
It’s also a message that more deals could be coming, should they continue to falter.
Because frankly, it looks a lot like a group of players that could use some of that outside motivation.
(Top photo of leaf sadness: Debora Robinson / NHLI via Getty Images)