PHOENIX – With Tuesday’s primary victories in Arizona and Michigan on top of those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, Republicans who have contested the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and could affect the outcome of the next one are on track to win a decisive control over how elections. they run in various battlefield states.
In a year in which Republican voters are buoyed by fierce disapproval of President Biden, these newly minted Republican candidates for secretary of state and governor have taken positions that could threaten the nation’s traditions of nonpartisan election administration, acceptance of election results and orderly transfers of elections. power
All have spread falsehoods about fraud and illegitimate ballots, endorsing the failed effort to overturn the 2020 results and keep former President Donald J. Trump in power. His history of undemocratic pushes has left Democrats, democracy experts and even some fellow Republicans questioning whether these officials would oversee fair elections and certify winners they didn’t support.
There is no doubt that victories by these candidates in November could lead to radical changes in the way millions of Americans vote. Several have proposed eliminating voting by mail, ballot boxes and even the use of electronic voting machines, while empowering partisan election observers and expanding their roles.
“If one of these election deniers wins statewide office, that’s a five-alarm fire for our elections,” said Joanna Lydgate, executive director of States United Action, a bipartisan organization. of legal surveillance and democracy. “It could throw our elections into chaos. It could put our democracy at risk.”
In Arizona, Republicans nominated Mark Finchem, who marched on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to protest Mr. Biden’s victory as secretary of state, the state’s top election official. They also elevated Abraham Hamadeh, who called his opponents and other Republicans “weak in the knees” to support certification in the 2020 election, as their nominee for attorney general.
And with votes still being counted, Kari Lake, who has said she would not have certified Mr. Biden’s 10,000-vote victory in her state, had a slight lead in the GOP primary for governor.
Even though he won his Republican primary for secretary of state, Mark Finchem said he believed fraud had occurred. Credit… Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
Both Ms. Lake as Mr. Finchem have made their willingness to violate some democratic norms and their promotion of conspiracy theories central to their campaigns. Ms Lake has said she does not believe the state is running fair elections. Even before the votes were cast, Mr Finchem was preparing for a recount of his career “if there is the slightest hint of irregularity”.
“There will be no such concession speech,” he said in June.
On Tuesday, both Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem claimed there was fraud in the state’s primaries.
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, who has at times falsely argued that Mr. Trump won the state in 2020 (he lost by more than 150,000 votes), clinched the Republican nomination for governor, while Kristina Karamo, who has called the fixed 2020 election and baselessly claimed that Dominion’s voting machine software reversed votes for Mr. Biden is the party’s presumptive candidate for secretary of state. Matthew DePerno, the presumptive GOP nominee for attorney general, has been a central player in Michigan’s 2020 election challenges and has pledged to investigate incumbent state officials.
Tudor Dixon, who captured the Republican nomination for governor of Michigan on Tuesday, has at times falsely claimed that Donald J. Trump carried the state in 2020. Credit…Emily Elconin for The New York Times
They join Jim Marchant, the Republican candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, who has said he would not have certified in the 2020 election and wants more sheriffs on the ballot, and Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, who led the push. void the 2020 state results. If he wins, Mr. Mastriano would appoint Pennsylvania’s top election official.
Although state legislatures write the laws governing how elections are conducted, secretaries of state have significant power over how elections are conducted, often determining how resources are distributed and what rules officials must follow locals During the pandemic, secretaries of state ordered that absentee ballot requests be widely sent by email in an effort to make voting more secure.
As senior election officials, secretaries of state could also use their power to discourage voting and erode trust. In several states, they can order expansive investigations or audits, potentially legitimizing false voter claims or pressuring local election officials to conduct unnecessary recounts and look for fraud.
Secretaries of state and governors also play a central role in formally certifying election winners, a largely ceremonial act but one that allies of Mr. Trump have tried to block the results. Although many legal experts say the courts would likely disagree, the prospect of a rogue governor or secretary of state refusing to certify an election could set the tone for a constitutional crisis.
In Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, Republican candidates for secretary of state (or governors who would nominate them) have indicated, or stated outright, that they would not certify the 2020 election.
“They could skew the counting, casting and certification of ballots, and that’s really harmful,” said Benjamin Ginsberg, a prominent Republican election lawyer who has criticized efforts to undermine the election process. “They’ve said they’re going to check registration harder, they could reduce polling places in non-Republican-friendly areas, they could put a wide variety of barriers to voting, which would be detrimental to the basic principle of every legal voter. to vote.”
Governors rejecting lies about the 2020 election have prevented Republican-controlled state legislatures from enacting new laws that would restrict voting or give partisan lawmakers greater control over election administration. Over the past two years, the governors of Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania vetoed nine bills that would have added restrictions on voting, according to the Voting Rights Lab.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan has blocked Republican-backed measures that would restrict voting in the state. Credit…Emily Elconin for The New York Times
Many of these proposals were part of a push for “election integrity,” responding to Republican voters’ unfounded concerns about fraud. (Despite Mr. Trump’s claims, there was no fraud in the 2020 election that affected the outcome, and nearly all of his allegations have been repeatedly debunked by local election officials, law enforcement and the courts ).
With a likable Republican governor or secretary of state, these far-reaching policies could become a reality.
Stephen K. Bannon, a former adviser to Mr. Trump wrote on social media that when Ms. Lake, Mr. Hamadeh and Mr. Finchem took office in Arizona, “then the real count will be done and Biden’s voters decertified.” He was referring to the theory that the 2020 election can still be decertified, which has no legal basis in the Constitution. Mr. Bannon added that once that happens, “Arizona will be FREE.”
Both Ms. Lake as Mr. Finchem have made bold plans to overhaul elections in the state. They recently filed a lawsuit to ban the use of electronic voting machines, and Mr. Finchem has previously tried to undo Arizona’s long-established and wildly popular vote-by-mail system.
If they win, they will likely find support for their electoral proposals in the Republican-controlled Legislature. A potential roadblock fell on Tuesday, when Rusty Bowers, who as House Republican speaker blocked the most extreme efforts to overturn the 2020 results, lost his primary bid for a state Senate seat .
Arizona’s leading Republican candidates want to ban the use of electronic voting machines, which would require ballots to be counted by hand. Credit… Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
Some Democrats are preparing to cast these candidates as dangerous extremists.
“We’re going to focus on a return to stability and predictability,” said Adrian Fontes, who is leading the Democratic primary for secretary of state in Arizona, saying he would focus on the “wild-eyed fanaticism” of Republicans, including Mr. Finchem. “They’ve come so far down this rabbit hole, I don’t think they’ll ever see the light of day.”
It’s unclear how much mainstream Democrats will try to appeal to voters about threats to democracy in the fall. Some senior party officials believe that while the issue may motivate committed Democratic voters, it is unlikely to persuade swing voters who are more focused on gas prices, inflation and health care. These Democrats believe that painting Republicans as extreme on abortion, for example, can be more effective than focusing on the mechanics of elections.
Still, money has been poured into some races for bureaucratic positions. Fundraising by secretary of state candidates in six battleground states has already topped $16 million, more than double the same time period last cycle, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. The analysis found that the fundraising race so far appears to slightly favor the candidates running against the election’s negatives.
The next big test comes next week in Wisconsin, where Republican gubernatorial candidates have pledged to overhaul the state’s election system in response to unfounded claims of trouble in 2020. All the major GOP candidates in the race ‘have pledged to eliminate the Wisconsin Election Commission. , a bipartisan agency that oversees state elections. It was created by Republicans in 2015, but…