Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh took to the podium Sunday night and saluted his injury-fighting quarterback to lead a spirited, albeit losing, effort against the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
The quarterback whose toughness Harbaugh prominently saluted in his postgame comments was Tyler Huntley, not Lamar Jackson, whose six-week unavailability after suffering a sprained knee has fueled speculation about Jackson’s motives in the absence of a contract extension.
As Baltimore’s season ended with a 24-17 wild-card loss at Cincinnati, the Ravens’ offseason began with NFL pundits questioning how prominent Jackson figures in the team’s plans.
The Pick Six column leads off with league-wide prospects on a topic that simmered for weeks before boiling over when it became clear Jackson would miss a sixth straight game, this one in the postseason, even though Harbaugh initially suggested the quarterback I could go back a month ago. . Will the Ravens trade Jackson? What are the alternatives? This and more in this wild card edition:
• Lamar Jackson’s future is… where?• Chargers, Herbert and rookie window• Bengals’ big play joins historic list• Giants’ under-the-radar play pays big• The trade is always worse than ever • Two Minute Exercise: Allen, Purdy and more
1. Is Lamar Jackson done in Baltimore? The situation feels more and more complicated.
It’s been a strange season for quarterbacks, with Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr both leaving their teams after being benched. The mystery surrounding Jackson remains unsolved, apparently by design.
The Ravens could have easily dismissed the idea that Jackson’s unresolved contract status might be influencing his availability. Isn’t that what Andy Reid would do if Patrick Mahomes’ motives were suddenly questioned? Wouldn’t any coach do that for a quarterback he wanted to protect?
“That’s absolutely how things are done, except if your last name is Harbaugh, right?” said an executive at another team who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “That’s what he and his brother do, and there’s one other man who takes care of business like that: he wears hoodies with the arms cut out of hoodies and his name is Bill Belichick.”
A decade ago, Harbaugh clashed with legendary safety Ed Reed over practices that Reed and some players found too intense. Any gap between Harbaugh’s expectations for Jackson and Jackson’s expectations could similarly fall along generational lines.
“Harbaugh is a power coach,” this executive said. “It’s like it’s 1983 and you’re going to get the kid back saying he’s an important part of the team and it’s not a serious injury, but that doesn’t work in today’s NFL. He tries to make it coy and complicated, but he wants wield power over players, just like the college coaches he comes from and admires.”
The Ravens moved on from Reed after that 2012 season.
Jackson is much more important to the Ravens now than Reed was then, but injuries have sidelined him at the end of the past two seasons, raising questions about how much money Baltimore should guarantee long-term.
According to TruMedia, Jackson is averaging 10.3 hurries and scrambles per start through 61 career starts, by far the most for any quarterback through 61 starts since at least 2000. Cam Newton is the next at 6.8 per outing through the same point in his career, followed by Michael Vick (6.7), Josh Allen (6.0) and Russell Wilson (5.3). Newton produced an MVP season while helping Carolina to the Super Bowl in his age-26 season, but never made the Pro Bowl again and began to decline. Jackson turned 26 last week.
“Has he improved as a passer?” asked an evaluator. “Sure, but he’s a running quarterback, and how is that different from the running back position? It’s different in terms of the number of hits, but the hits can be worse for a quarterback. I just wouldn’t commit to him any more a year or two.”
Jackson wanted a fully guaranteed deal like the one Deshaun Watson took from Cleveland when Watson could have signed with other teams. Jackson doesn’t have that kind of leverage because Baltimore owns his rights through the franchise tag. But he could make the situation in Baltimore untenable if he wanted to, the way Jalen Ramsey and others have when they looked.
Does it really come to this for Jackson and the Ravens?
“It’s hard to get rid of a player who has helped you achieve so much,” said another executive. “You can only do that if you have a replacement ready on the roster or if the locker room is like, ‘We’re fine without that guy.’ They don’t have the replacement lined up, so it’s going to have to be something where the locker room says, ‘Hey , he’s a little messed up, what he’s doing.’ ”
After the Cincinnati game, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey offered support to Jackson, suggesting the quarterback was limping around the facility at perhaps 50-60 percent of his full strength, but Harbaugh has allowed that perceptions lingered when I could have reset the narrative long ago.
“Yeah, he’s letting Lamar spin in the wind,” said this executive.
“Nothing but admiration for our boys, very proud of our football team.” pic.twitter.com/ZCSyMbkV44
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 16, 2023
“Tyler Huntley, coming in and playing the way he played, coming off his shoulder and wrist injuries and fighting to get back on the field and giving it everything he had,” Harbaugh said after the game.
Sean Payton predicted on Fox’s pregame show Sunday that Jackson had played his last game with the Ravens. Vick, sitting near Payton in the Fox studio, suggested that Jackson should have “put an arm” on his knee and gutted him. Earlier in the week, Ravens wide receiver Sammy Watkins suggested Jackson could play if he signed a long-term contract.
“I’m not a Lamar apologist, but I don’t think any of us know what’s going on medically,” the evaluator warned. “Everybody’s different, and a PCL is a weird ligament, and if there’s really inflammation, it’s hard to play.”
One agent thought the upcoming offseason would be terrible for quarterback-needy teams. That could increase demand for Carr, who is on the trade block. Tom Brady could be available as a short-term solution. Jimmy Garoppolo’s durability will be a factor that teams will have to evaluate. Teams that are ranked outside of the top picks cannot count on this route.
“There’s definitely going to be a market for Lamar if the Ravens want to trade him,” said an executive with ties to the Ravens. “I was thinking maybe Houston. They have a ton of draft capital. Atlanta comes to mind. Lamar coming home to Miami would be amazing if they could find a way.”
It’s all speculation at this point, but it feels less far-fetched all the time.
“I see a divorce unless their doctors tell them privately that Lamar really can’t play because of the injury, which seems doubtful with the way Harbaugh has handled him,” said a longtime executive at a other team “I could see a change next spring if they get a high enough pick to get a new QB. Lamar seems to have a ceiling that Jalen Hurts took away this year. Harbaugh makes it sound like they’re tired of the situation. They’re never going to give him the Watson-type contract he is said to covet.”
2. Six quarterbacks have reached Tier 1 status while taking their rookie deals since I began polling coaches and executives annually for “Quarterback Tiers” in 2014. The Chargers should be sorry that Justin Herbert is the only that hasn’t won the postseason.
Herbert becomes eligible for a new contract this offseason after completing his third NFL season. The Chargers could wait another year or move to do something sooner. If they sign a new deal this offseason, they’ll have a year or two with smaller salary cap charges before the cap hits make it harder to build a team around them.
Either way, the Chargers’ 31-30 loss in Jacksonville after blowing a 27-0 lead made Los Angeles the first team since 1999 to lose a game while committing zero turnovers and forcing at least five. Teams had won 101 consecutive games when the turnover markers were taken to these extremes.
The following table shows the postseason records of Herbert and the five other quarterbacks to achieve Tier 1 status since 2014 before signing second contracts. The other five combined for a 17-10 postseason record with a Super Bowl title while still on their rookie deals.
Herbert’s Chargers are 0-1 after their historic collapse.
Playoff wins with rookie deals
Rookie Deal QBPlayoff W-LReached
4-1
SB Win
4-1
SB loss
3-3
AFC title loss
3-3
AFC title loss
1-2
Loss FRI
0-1
Toilet loss
3. How big was Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard touchdown return for the Cincinnati Bengals? Bigger than every postseason garbage play since at least 2000.
The Ravens were on the verge of a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead into the fourth quarter in Cincinnati, or so they thought. Hubbard’s long fumble return after Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley ran the ball toward, but not through, the goal line produced a 12.0-point swing in expected added points (EPA ), according to TruMedia. That number represents Baltimore’s swing on third-and-goal from the 1, which was worth 5.5 EPA in favor of the Ravens, and the very unexpected actual outcome of the play.
WITHOUT WORDS. #BALatCIN | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/pAFTy1yqpS
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 16, 2023
Only James Harrison’s famous interception for Pittsburgh of Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner in the 2008 postseason Super Bowl produced a bigger postseason swing on a single play. Hubbard’s play was more important because it came in the fourth quarter.
John Madden calling James Harrison’s pick-6 in the Super Bowl against…