SATURDAY AM: About $10 million is missing from the current theatrical market this weekend.
Halloween Ends projections from Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax/Trancas were expected to reach around $55M and now it looks like $43.4M. It is clear that the monitoring did not take into account the factor of the day and the date of the theater. Yes, it’s still a gross return on the film’s $30 million production cost, and Uni’s run-date theatrical distribution and studio marketing aren’t to blame here . These departments did nothing wrong. Don’t point the finger at Paramount’s fantastic third weekend for Smile either (-35% with $12M; genre fans are likely to see both films). I don’t even think Halloween Ends’ C+ Cinemascore is a factor here (the lowest grade of David Gordon Green’s recent franchise subset trilogy).
However, as one sharp studio executive points out, “it’s hard to underestimate the day-and-date factor.” Clearly, despite the fact that Peacock, where Halloween Ends is also available, is in 15 million paying subscriber homes (a low number next to the competition).
Guess this, Jeff Shell: So you take a brand name movie, deflate its optics by making it day in and day out with a lower box office number titled in exchange for financials, streaming viewers and subscriber numbers that don’t they can be publicly disclosed immediately. ? Or will it be announced in a few weeks? Or will it never? Or will it be leaked to the Wall Street Journal (remember the Trolls world tour near $100 million, according to sources)? And this is done at a time when the theatrical side of the business is starving and lacking product, and when Wall Street is falling in love with streaming? It doesn’t matter that Halloween Ends is dirtier than Barbarian or Don’t Worry Darling. Of course it will, it’s a franchise movie, huh. The point is that money is being left on the table. A reminder that the equity players in Halloween Ends are Blumhouse, Trancas, and Miramax, who were bought out whole for this experiment, and Uni only gets a global distribution fee.
Essentially, if you think about it, by completely not going to the theater, there’s about $5 million that won’t be returning to Universal this weekend in pure movie rentals (roughly 50% of the $10 million missing from the photo). It will possibly lose more as daytime and date movies take a big dip (Halloween Kills plummeted 71% in weekend 2 and that was at the Peacock as well). Halloween Kills in terms of its $49.4 million opening generated a double exit factor with $92 million. Whatever NBCUni makes of Peacock subscription fees is theirs to keep, not share with the show. Right now, there’s a deal where you can get Peacock for $19.99 a year. So NBCUni has over 250,000 registered subscribers? Will these subscribers stay? Whose demo is yours with Halloween Ends day and date? Seniors? As the 18-34 age group drove most of Halloween Ends business at 65%. The conventional wisdom is that streaming subscribers who sign up for movies don’t stick around; they stay for the series. Halloween Ends has 2 1/2 stars on PostTrak, 64%. If business slows down tonight due to word of mouth, it will also be affected at the same time on the OTT service. It’s not exactly a win-win.
How do you celebrate Halloween Ends as a win? Certainly not in the audience. First, the 30-day audience for Halloween Kills was 2.8 million in terrestrial smart TV homes for Samba TV, and that’s not much next to the 4.1 million who saw Batman’s Matt Reeves in the first seven days when it came to HBO Max. after its 45-day theatrical run. When it comes to fresh streamers right now, it’s not about audience, it’s about subscribers. Even if 10 million people watched Halloween Ends on the Peacock this weekend, how much of that was fueled by hacking and copied passwords? A detailed analysis of money earned versus money lost should be done here. What’s the point of diluting a brand to support a struggling streaming service?
Maybe, Peacock, you should just go build your own Dragon House.
WarnerMedia wisely learned from the mistakes of practicing the economy backwards of the day and date, and NBCUni, I don’t know why you haven’t learned yet. Streamers are on the precipice of embracing a theatrical window, for crying out loud with Netflix and its Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story experiment. As NATO President and CEO John Fithian stated at CinemaCon: “Simultaneous launch is dead as a serious business model, and piracy is what killed it.”
NBCUniversal, keep up with the times.
*****
Other diagnostics on Halloween Ends: The third Green-directed picture in the series has now matched its predecessor, Halloween Kills, for its Rotten Tomatoes critical score of 39%. Audiences aren’t that far off from disagreeing with critics at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. A wide diversity of participation here: 33% Caucasian, 37% Latino/Hispanic, 19% Black, 4% Asian, and 7% Other. The film topped the South, South Central and Midwest with the highest grossing Cinemark Tinseltown El Paso. The premium widescreen has driven a third of ticket sales so far.
TILL, Danielle Deadwyler as Mamie Till-Mobley, UAR
On the limited side of the box office, United Artists Releasing’s Till took in $96,000 from 16 theaters in five markets yesterday for what looks to be a $229,000 opening weekend or a $14,300 theater average. Solid numbers I’m hearing from the Chinonye Chukwu-led play in New York, LA, Chicago, Washington DC and Atlanta with a huge turnout at AMC Phipps Plaza in Atlanta.
Tar’s expansion from four to 36 theaters from Focus Features in 13 markets brought in $110,000 Friday for a second weekend of $360,000 or $10,000 per theater. Good numbers, I hear in New York, LA, San Francisco, Toronto and Chicago.
Total ticket sales are estimated at $82.3 million, up 24% from the same weekend a year ago which grossed $108.9 million. There were more big movies in theaters then, namely No Time to Die and Venom: Let There Be Carnage.
1.) Halloween Ends (Uni) 3,901 theaters, $20.2M Fri, $43.4M 3D/Week 1
2.) Smile (Par) 3,612 rooms (-47), Fri. $3.73M (-31%), $12M (-35%), $70.7M Three Days/Week 3
3.) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (Sony) 4,350 theaters, Fri. $2M (-43%), $7.25M Three Days (-36%)/Total: $22.6M/Week 2
4.) The Woman King (Sony) 2,565 (-777) theaters Fri. $1.35M (-26%), $3.765M 3-Day (-27%)/$59.8M Total/Week 5
5.) Amsterdam (Sat) 3,005 rooms, Fri. $888,000 (-66%), $2.9M (-54%) over 3 days/Total: $12M/Week 2
6.) Don’t Worry Darling (NL/WB), 2,734 (-590) theaters, Fri. $740,000 (-35%), 3-Day $2.3M (-34%)/Total $42.5M/Week 4
7.) Barbarian (20th/Sat) 1,805 rooms (-355), Fri. $406,000 (-35%) 3 Days $1.3M (-39%)/Total $38.9M/Week 6
8.) Bros (Uni) 2,201 rooms (-1,155), Fri. $290,000 (-57%) Three-Day $900,000 (-58%)/$10.8M Total/Week 3
9.) Terrifier 2 (iconic) 700 rooms (-186), Fri. $250,000 (-2%), $803,000 3-day (even), $2.2M total/week 2Talk about a window that works for a low-budget horror film – this title of filmmaker Damien Leone’s iconic release remains firmly in sync with its $805,000 opening weekend.
10.) Sales Top Gun Maverick (Par) 902 (-225), Fri. $200,000 (-11%), $680,000 3-Day (-16%), Total: $715.8M/Week 21
MID-FRIDAY UPDATE: As of this minute, Halloween Ends isn’t looking as great as forecasts had predicted, namely in the $50 million range. Still, at a $43 million opening, that’s not bad for a movie that cost $30 million. Remember it’s a triple. Universal can boast that this is the sixth year in a row (8th time) that the studio has had a #1 opening with a horror film after 2017’s Get Out, 2018’s Halloween, 2019’s Us, 2020’s Freaky, Candyman and Halloween Kills of 2021 and that. New Year’s Eve and Halloween Finals.
Today, including last night’s $5.4M previews, it looks like it’ll take $20M from 3,901 theaters, down just 12% from Halloween Kills’ opening day. Maybe there will be a hit on the west coast or at night, but that’s what the numbers look like as of now against the historical comps of Halloween and Halloween Kills. The latest Michael Myers film saw a 24% drop from Friday/Saturday previews.
RelishMix on social media saw nothing but blue skies for Halloween Ends, saying the chatter is positive about the film’s title, Halloween Ends, as they assume it’s a teaser for the future of the franchise, noting that “Michael Myers can never die because of his immortality”.
Plus, the brand’s trick-or-treat iconography since Halloween first dropped 44 years ago, when Curtis was a teenager, is resonating. Super fans also shout out to the film’s creator, John Carpenter, who composed this sequel.
The total social media reach is 146.5 million across YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter, which is down from the 2018 title which was close to 193 million, and about the same for Halloween Kills at 147 million. Curtis and Kyle Richards lead the cast with social media reach of 7.8 and 6.3 million.
Curtis confirmed in writing to Jimmy Kimmel that Halloween Ends is his final Halloween movie…
‘Smile’ by Paramount Paramount Pictures
Maybe Paramount’s Smile is stealing some of the business: Parker Finn’s horror flick is only expected to drop 37% in its third weekend for $11.75 million and a total of $70.5 million . Friday is $3.6M, -32%, at 3,612 theaters.
The second weekend of Sony’s Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile ranks third with a Friday of $1.9M, -48% and $7M in three days from 4,350 theaters, -47% and ten days of $22.4 million.
Fourth is TriStar’s The Woman King at 2,565 theaters and a $933,000 5th Fri, -29%, $3.5M weekend, -32% for a total of $56.6M.
Fifth is New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s Amsterdam at 3,005 for a $900,000 Friday…