Strengthening Tropical Storm Ian was expected to intensify into a hurricane on Monday, and possibly into a high-end Category 4 storm as early as midweek this week.
State of the game: Ian was about 355 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba at 2 a.m. ET, and its maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 70 mph, from 45 miles per hour Sunday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. A storm is classified as a hurricane when its maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph.
Photo: NWS Miami/Twitter
Details: A hurricane warning was in effect for Grand Cayman and several Cuban provinces as the storm moved northwest at 13 mph.
- A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West to the Dry Tortugas, as well as several provinces in Cuba.
- A tropical storm watch was in effect for Englewood southward to Chokoloskee, Florida, and the Caribbean islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
The big picture: President Biden declared a federal state of emergency for several Florida counties Saturday night, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for the entire state.
What to watch: In its 2 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said Ian was expected to become a hurricane Monday morning and a “major hurricane” by Tuesday.
- “Storm surge could raise water levels up to 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the west coast of Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the warning area of hurricane Monday night and early Tuesday,” the agency said.
- The National Hurricane Center forecast two to four inches of rain from the Florida Keys to the south and central Florida peninsula Monday through Wednesday morning.
Threat level: Studies show an increase in the occurrence of rapid intensification due to human-caused climate change.
- The western Caribbean Sea is a powder keg for hurricanes right now, with high ocean heat content and weak upper-level winds.
The latest projected track for Tropical Storm Ian, released at 2 a.m. ET Monday by the National Hurricane Center. Image: NOAA
What they’re saying: Even if Florida’s west coast doesn’t take a direct hit from Ian, “it doesn’t take a landfall or a direct hit from a hurricane to pile up the water,” said acting director of the NHC, Jamie Rhome. at a Sunday briefing.
- He urged Florida residents to find out if they are in a likely evacuation zone at FloridaDisaster.org in case evacuations are ordered.
What’s next: The key questions facing forecasters, public officials and tens of millions of residents along the Gulf Coast are where the storm will head once it becomes a hurricane and how strong a when I get there
- Computer models have been diverging, with some showing a hit in northwest Florida or perhaps southeast Alabama. Others show success much further east, closer to Tampa.
- Forecast trends since Friday have pushed the most likely track of Ian’s center westward, closer to Florida’s Panhandle region.
- While the likelihood of significant impacts in South Florida has decreased, it has not completely disappeared, and the Hurricane Center urges all Floridians to prepare for impacts from the storm.
Context: Human-caused climate change is altering the characteristics of nature’s most powerful storms.
- For example, sea level rise due to melting ice sheets makes a hurricane’s storm surge more damaging.
This story has been updated with storm strengthening and the latest estimates of when the storm is expected to become a hurricane.