Italians are voting in an election expected to produce the country’s most radical right-wing government since the end of the second world war and a prime minister set to become a model for nationalist parties across Europe.
A coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist origins, is expected in pre-vote polls to score a comfortable victory in both houses of Parliament as it takes between 44 and 47 percent of the votes
Meloni’s party will also have the majority of votes within the coalition, which includes the far-right League, led by Matteo Salvini, and Forza Italia, led by Silvio Berlusconi, meaning it could become the first woman prime minister of Italy.
The coalition’s victory, however, raises questions about the country’s alliances in Europe, and while Meloni has sought to send reassuring messages, his seizure of power is unlikely to be welcomed in Paris or Berlin.
Germany’s ruling Social Democratic party warned last week that its victory would be bad for European cooperation. Lars Klingbeil, chairman of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, said Meloni had aligned himself with “anti-democratic” figures such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Earlier this month, Meloni’s MEPs voted against a resolution condemning Hungary as “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”. Meloni is also allied with Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice party, the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats and Spain’s far-right Vox party.
The 45-year-old Roman politician received an endorsement from Vox at the end of her campaign and, in response, said that the two parties were bound by “mutual respect, friendship and loyalty”, while she hoped that the victory of the Brothers of Italy would give it to Vox. some push in Spain.
“Meloni has the ambition to represent a model not only for Italy, but for Europe; this is something new [for the right in Italy] compared to the past,” said Nadia Urbinati, a political theorist at New York’s Columbia University and the University of Bologna. “He has contacts with other conservative parties, who want a Europe with less civil rights … the model there is and so is the project.”
Mattia Diletti, a professor of politics at Rome’s Sapienza University, said Meloni would win because of his ability to be ideological but pragmatic, which has enabled him to bring France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen to the task of becoming the leader of Western Europe. model of nationalism.
However, it is unlikely to find the boat, at least initially, as it seeks to ensure continued cash flows under the EU’s €191.5bn (£166bn) Covid recovery plan. of Italy, the largest in the EU. The coalition has said it does not intend to renegotiate the plan, but would like to make changes.
Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi, Giorgia Meloni and Maurizio Lupi are attending a political meeting organized by the right-wing political alliance in Rome this Thursday. Photography: Riccardo Fabi/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
“Ambiguity is the key to understanding Meloni,” Diletti said. “She is really interested in engaging with the EU on economic policy. But if the EU pushes her too far on the Italian government, she can always return to her safe zone as a right-wing populist leader. She will do whatever it takes to stay in power”.
Salvini’s potential return to the interior ministry will also dampen hopes of a breakthrough in the EU’s attempt to reform its migration system by sharing asylum seekers between member states. Salvini, who has close ties to Le Pen, said he “can’t wait” to resume his policy of blocking migrant rescue boats from entering Italian ports.
On Ukraine, Meloni has condemned Russia’s invasion and supported sending arms to the war-torn country, but it remains unclear whether his government will support the eighth round of EU sanctions discuss in Brussels. Salvini has claimed the sanctions brought Italy to its knees, although he never blocked any EU measures against Russia when he was in Mario Draghi’s broad governing coalition, which collapsed in July.
Voting began at 7am on Sunday and turnout was 19% by midday. The share of undecided voters was 25% before voting began, meaning the right-wing alliance could win a slimmer majority than pollsters originally suggested. A left-wing alliance led by the Democratic Party is expected to get 22-27% of the vote.
Several seats in southern Italian regions such as Pulla and Calabria are also potentially up for grabs after a mini-resurgence by the populist Five Star Movement, which regained support after vowing to maintain its flagship policy, the basic income, if the party recovered. enter the government
There was a steady stream of voters Sunday morning at a booth in Esquilino, a multicultural neighborhood in Rome, but the mood was one of despondency.
“It feels like we’re on a ship without a rudder,” said Carlo Russo. “The only thing we heard during the election campaign was an exchange of insults between the different parties rather than an exchange of ideas. And in moments of confusion like this, people vote for the person who seems to be the strongest.”
Fausto Maccari, who runs a kiosk, said he will not vote for the right, but is not sure who he will support. “The options are poor,” added Maccari, who is in his 60s. “For example, I look at Berlusconi and he reminds me of a comic book character. At his age, he shouldn’t be doing politics. It would be as if I, at my age, tried to be a footballer like Maradona”.
Many Italians who support Meloni do so because she has not yet been tried and tested in government, and are drawn to her determination and loyalty to her ideals.
“She comes across as a capable woman, but not arrogant,” Urbinati said. “She gets things done and is dedicated, but without that male adrenaline that wants power at any cost.”