China will begin an unprecedented series of live-fire drills that would effectively blockade the island of Taiwan, just hours after the departure of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose controversial visit this week has sparked fears of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan has called the drills, which will last until Sunday afternoon and include missile tests and other “military operations” up to nine miles off Taiwan’s coast, a violation of international law.
While China’s military often conducts live-fire drills in the strait and surrounding seas, those planned for this week circle the main island of Taiwan and target areas within its territorial sea.
Before the exercise, it said 27 Chinese warplanes had entered its air defense identification zone, including flights over the median line — the unofficial border across the Taiwan Strait. On Wednesday night, two suspected drones flew over Taiwan’s outlying island of Kinmen, and Taiwan’s military fired flares in response.
Pelosi arrived in Taipei on Tuesday night under intense global scrutiny, and was greeted by Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and US Representative to Taiwan Sandra Oudkirk.
He addressed Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday before holding public and private meetings with President Tsai Ing-wen.
“Our delegation came to Taiwan to make it abundantly clear that we will not abandon Taiwan and we are proud of our enduring friendship,” Pelosi said Wednesday, as Tsai presented her with Taiwan’s highest civilian order.
He said U.S. solidarity with Taiwan was “crucial” in confronting an increasingly authoritarian China.
In a later statement, he said China could not prevent world leaders from traveling to Taiwan “to respect its flourishing democracy.”
Military drills with live fire planned
As Pelosi’s plane took off from Songshan Airport on Wednesday evening, Wu waved goodbye from the tarmac. But like the American left, Taiwan faced days of military activity that threatened to escalate into a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis.
Taiwan’s defense ministry accused Beijing of planning to violate the international convention on the law of the sea, by violating Taiwan’s sovereign territory.
Veerle Nouwens, senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said the location of the six exclusion zones was noteworthy.
“In particular, the exclusion zones seem to no longer be centered on China’s coast, but instead surround Taiwan,” he said, adding that China has a different interpretation of which laws apply to which considers its own maritime zones.
Taiwanese authorities have said the proximity to some major ports combined with orders for all aircraft and sea vessels to stay away from the area amounts to a blockade.
China also expanded its trade suspensions to Taiwan on Wednesday to include additional agricultural products, following a ban on imports from more than 100 Taiwanese food companies earlier in the week. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner.
Taipei has remained defiant in its rhetoric. Tsai said on Wednesday that Taiwan “will not back down” in the face of increased military threats and will “do whatever is necessary to maintain Taiwan’s peace and stability.” Beijing said its exercises were “necessary and fair”.
Beijing’s latest exercises are being closely watched by Taiwan, the US and other regional powers, Nouwens said.
“The US will look for the PLAs [People’s Liberation Army’s] use of conventional missiles in its inventory; for example, will China conduct anti-ship ballistic missile tests or use air-launched and ship-launched ASBM variants?
“They will also pay attention to the types of exercises, for example, if, how often and how far the PLA crosses the midline, which they did today … crossing well above the midline.
“Finally, they will also look to get a better idea of PLA coordination between air and sea forces, especially given the different scenarios they’ve emphasized they’ll be exercising for.”
Across the region, there is a growing sense of uncertainty, and the exercises have also upset the region’s neighbors. Japanese analysts said the North’s drills were also a clear warning to its government about islands claimed by Tokyo and Beijing.
“These plans show that the Sakishima islands, including Yonaguni, Ishigaki and Miyako, could be affected by PLA operations, as they assume that the PLA is operating in eastern Taiwan,” Tetsuo Kotani , Professor of Global Studies at Meikai University. , he told the Japan Times.
China’s Communist Party government, which considers Taiwan its territory even though it has never ruled the island, has repeatedly warned of retaliation for the visit.
On Tuesday night, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng “urgently summoned” the US ambassador, Nicholas Burns, to make stern representations. China’s ambassador to the UK, Zheng Zeguang, also warned that “those who play with fire will get burned”.
Pelosi’s flight took a non-direct route from Kuala Lumpur, detouring through Indonesia and the Philippines, avoiding the South China Sea, to fly to Taiwan. There had been concerns that China could send PLA jets to intercept or queue its aircraft in Taiwanese airspace.
There is also fear of an escalation of cyber warfare and disinformation. At 7-Eleven stores in Taiwan on Wednesday, the message “Warmonger Pelosi leaves Taiwan” appeared on the stores’ television screens.
According to local reports, some customers thought the message was a statement of the 7-Eleven franchise owner’s views. But Uni-president, the parent company, told local media that it suspected it had been hacked.
Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter, every weekday morning at 7am BST
Shortly before Pelosi’s arrival, Chinese state media reported that Beijing’s Su-35 fighter jets were flying across the Taiwan Strait. Taipei later dismissed the announcement as “fake news”.
Pelosi previously said China was making “a big fuss” about the visit because of her status as speaker of the US House of Representatives. “I don’t know if this is a reason or an excuse,” he said, adding: “Whatever China does, it will do in its own time.”
Additional reporting by Chi Hui Lin