Nearly one million people in Canada are expected to have dementia by 2030, an increase of more than 65% from 2020, according to projections in a new report from the Alzheimer Society of Canada.
And unless steps are taken to reduce risks and delay the onset of disease, nearly 1.4 billion hours of care, equivalent to more than 690,000 full-time jobs, will be required annually to support 1.7 million Canadians who will have dementia. 2050, said the report, released on Tuesday.
Number of people living with dementia and number of new cases of dementia per year in Canada, 2020 to 2050
In thousands
THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL, SOURCE: ALZHEIMER
SOCIETY OF CANADA
Number of people living with dementia and number of new cases of dementia per year in Canada, 2020 to 2050
In thousands
THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL, SOURCE: ALZHEIMER
SOCIETY OF CANADA
Number of people living with dementia and number of new cases of dementia per year in Canada, 2020 to 2050
In thousands
THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL, SOURCE: ALZHEIMER SOCIETY OF CANADA
If there aren’t many changes to current trends, the number of people with dementia and the number of people caring for them “will be enormous,” said Saskia Sivananthan, director of research at the Alzheimer Society of Canada. But that amount of growth is not inevitable, he said. By investing in addressing modifiable risk factors that improve brain health, “as a government and as a country, we can start to change and lower some of these numbers.”
The report, titled Navigating the Path Forward for Dementia in Canada, is the first in a series from the organization’s Landmark Study, which uses computer models and demographic data from Statistics Canada to forecast the impact of dementia in the country over the next 30 years. Two additional reports, examining the social and economic effects of dementia, will be released in the coming months, the Alzheimer Society of Canada said.
In 2020, an estimated 597,300 people had some form of dementia in Canada, with an incidence rate of 348 new cases diagnosed per day, the report released Tuesday showed. Common forms of dementia include Alzheimer’s dementia, a later stage of Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia, which is caused by a lack of blood flow to the brain.
In 2020 there were 350,000 unpaid carers of people with dementia, including family, friends and neighbours. They provided an average of 26 hours of care per week, totaling 470 million hours of care per year.
Based on current trends, the report says that by 2050 both the number of people with dementia and the number of carers will almost triple.
The projections did not take into account any potential impact of COVID-19, said Joshua Armstrong, a scientist at the Alzheimer Society of Canada who authored the report. He explained that there is a lack of data on how the stresses associated with the pandemic or the virus itself might affect these estimates.
The report, however, showed that improving efforts to reduce the risks and delay the onset of dementia could lead to up to millions fewer cases. If everyone delayed dementia by a year, there would be almost 500,000 fewer new cases by 2050, the projections showed. If everyone delayed dementia by 10 years, there would be more than four million fewer new cases by 2050.
Certain risk factors, such as age and genetics, are not modifiable, but the report pointed to several risk factors, including lack of education, hearing loss, social isolation, physical inactivity and air pollution He provided a list of steps people can take, such as being physically and socially active, getting six to eight hours of sleep a night, avoiding excessive alcohol consumption, seeking treatment for depression, avoiding head injuries and using hearing aids , if necessary.
Dr. Armstrong emphasized the need for communities, public health agencies and other government organizations to help people.
“They are only changeable if people have the support and resources to change them,” he said.
Dr. Sivananthan added that it’s important to try to reduce multiple risk factors, as a series of small changes can have a cumulative effect.
The report offered recommendations aimed at organizations, health systems and different levels of government. one is that the federal government must pay for and fully fund the National Dementia Strategy, a roadmap Ottawa released in 2019. Its recommendations for provincial and territorial governments include improving education for all ages and helping workplaces to offer flexible support to carers.
Roger Wong, a clinical professor of geriatric medicine at the University of British Columbia, said he hopes the report will spur more support for dementia care.
Dr. Wong, who was not involved in the study but chairs the Alzheimer Society of Canada’s research and knowledge committee, also expressed a desire for policymakers to promote research and public education on the issue.
“Now that we know, we have to do something,” he said.
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