Liz Truss’ humiliating U-turn on her proposal to cut regional public sector pay proved the ultimate example of how big policy deals can quickly unravel on contact.
As part of a package to cut civil service spending dubbed the “war on waste”, Mr Truss claimed up to £8.8bn could be saved by creating regional pay boards. Indeed, these would have diluted the pay packages offered to civil servants seeking new contracts outside London and the South East, given the relatively lower cost of living away from the capital.
Sunak’s supporters immediately seized on the policy as an example of “downsizing” – with Tees Valley Tory Mayor Ben Houchen saying millions of nurses, police and armed forces would effectively face a pay cut. While Truss’s campaign claimed the criticism was a “deliberate misrepresentation”, they reversed themselves less than 24 hours later and said the proposal would not “go ahead”.
But it’s not the only policy touted by the two prime ministerial candidates that may not stand up to greater scrutiny.
The promises of Liz Truss
Tax reductions
Tax has been a key dividing line in the contest, with Truss promising to scrap the 1.25 percentage point rise in National Insurance contributions to pay for the NHS rise and care social, which entered into force in April. He has also pledged to cancel a sharp rise in corporate tax planned for next year.
It has suggested that the plans will help tackle the cost of living crisis, but the Resolution Foundation has pointed out that only 15% of the benefit from the NIC cut will go to the poorest half of the population, who will see more affected by the price of energy. come up.
Liz Truss poses for a photo with fans at an event in Ludlow. Photo: Jacob King/PA
Meanwhile, it has been repeatedly suggested that unfunded tax cuts could push up inflation, forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates, perhaps not to 7%, as its economic guru Patrick Minford suggested, but more than they would otherwise, the Resolution. Foundation suggesting maybe up to 1 percentage point.
Reduce crime by 20%
Truss has pledged to oversee a 20% reduction in key crime before the end of the parliament and that data on homicides, serious violence and neighborhood crime will be made compulsory. These statistics are already collected by the government and the announcement does not offer new resources or say how such a dramatic reduction could be achieved.
Sir Peter Fahy, the former chief constable of Greater Manchester Police, said the targets had been shown to create perverse incentives where officers focused on easier wins to boost statistics rather than the most complex or vulnerable
Truss’s plans are similar to measures discussed by senior Home Office officials and police chiefs in late 2020 and 2021 but not enacted.
The Promises of Rishi Sunak
Cut taxes by 20% at the end of the next parliament
Team Truss called this a U-turn by Sunak, who had previously warned against promising immediate tax cuts, but it is less obvious than his promise to cut VAT on energy bills, which he refused to deliver as chancellor. The most obvious gap in this policy is the feasibility of making promises about which tax cuts can or cannot be made until 2029, without having any idea of the fiscal situation.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that while this is a substantial cut, it is still considerably less than the net tax increase announced by Sunak as chancellor, which was “comfortably more than double”. Sunak’s new policy would still leave the total tax take, as a proportion of national income, at its highest level since the early 1950s.
Sunak’s offer is being made because the Treasury has “room to spare” before breaching fiscal rules on borrowing. But given the volatility of the economic situation, it is easy for this breathing space to disappear.
Rishi Sunak (left) speaks during an event in Ludlow. Photo: Jacob King/PA
Charge GP appointments
Sunak said he would introduce a temporary charge of £10 for patients who miss a “second or subsequent” GP appointment. The approach appears to be aimed at incentivizing patients not to skip appointments lightly; but was criticized by medical leaders and health policy experts.
The NHS Confederation warned that the costs of running the scheme were likely to exceed the money raised and suggested it was more important to deal with the reasons people are unable to attend, with home visits and late night appointments, for example.
The BMA said it would break the principle that primary care is free at the point of use, without addressing the real problems facing the NHS.
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to prevent
Sunak said people who vilified the UK should be treated as extremists and referred to the government’s de-radicalisation programme, Prevent. The intent was to ensure that “those with an extreme hatred of our country that leads them to pose a risk to national security can be identified and diverted from a destructive path.”
However, the definition of extremism in the Prevent strategy is not legally binding and is a voluntary program anyway. Although Sunak’s campaign stressed that criticism of the government or its policies would not be included, concerns were raised that it would risk “engaging in thought crime” and further damaging Prevent’s reputation.
His announcement also made no mention of far-right extremism, which Parliament’s intelligence and security committee found in its report last month to be on an “upward trajectory” and that MI5 had absorbed responsibility for tackling it without the necessary resources.