Danny Ainge is a man of extremes. Either he’s determined to win a championship, as he was when he traded all of the Boston Celtics youth for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007, or he’s in the end. When it became clear that the Celtics were no longer a viable candidate for the championship, he switched to Garnett and Paul Pierce for a one-time future.
This always made the idea that the Utah Jazz could keep Donovan Mitchell after treating Rudy Gobert a little laughable. Nothing from Ainge suggests he would be interested in pursuing the game tournament for a year or two before Mitchell himself finally forced himself into a contender of his own choosing. Ainge is many things. Delirium is not one of them. Once it became clear that the Jazz in their previous build would never win a championship, a large-scale restart involving both Mitchell and Gobert exchanges seemed inevitable.
Thus, as we construct possible Mitchell agreements in light of Adrian Wojnarowski’s reports on the availability of the All-Star Guard, we must do so from the lens of Ainge’s ambitions. This is not a man known by half measures. He won’t want to make a deal that keeps Jazz a little competitive. The name of the game here is election and rise. In a perfect world, Utah will land assets that will pay off the line without threatening its immediate efforts to close. These are the five best positioned teams to offer Jazz this package.
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Surely you’ve heard of the connections before. Mitchell is represented by CAA. Knicks president Leon Rose once led the CAA’s basketball operations. Mitchell grew up in nearby Connecticut. His father worked at the New York Mets. The interest here is almost certainly mutual. The issue is price.
The Knicks can send Jazz as much draft capital as anyone. They have eight negotiable first-round elections, including four of their own. In Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes, they have a picture of interesting young people to give Utah a chance. But the line in the sand here is probably the former No. 3 overall pick RJ Barrett. After all, if the Knicks change everything for Mitchell, they have little room for improvement. Combining Mitchell (25) with Barrett (22) and Jalen Brunson (25) would give New York three young stallions to grow.
Would Barrett be a deal breaker for Utah? Probably not, especially considering the limitations other suitors have here. If the Knicks put seven or eight first-round players on the table, no one else will beat them. Right now, they’re in the driver’s seat with or without Barrett, and that probably fits well in Utah. Anyway it’s too good to close properly.
Miami’s limited capital would hamper Mitchell’s trade. The Heat have no first-round pick and owe one in 2025 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. As it stands, they can send the Jazz two first-round picks, three exchanges and the 2022 first-round pick Nikola Jovic. If they get a little creative in the language of the bites, they could send a third to Jazz, but this strategy is not without risks. Selection protections owed to the Thunder could delay its transmission until 2026, and if it does, Heat will only be able to legally market its 2028 selection after agreeing to some notable CBA rules.
The Stepien Rule prevents teams from being left without a first-round selection in consecutive drafts. The “Seven Year Rule” prevents teams from exchanging selections for more than seven years. In other words: The Heat could offer its 2023, 2027 and 2029 options for Mitchell conditional on its 2025 selection going to the Thunder, but if that lottery-protected Thunder selection is not aired in 2025, the 2027 selection would change again in 2028 and the 2029 selection should become seconds because 2030 is over seven years old.
Working for Miami, however, is Ainge’s long-standing interest in Herro. It has been reported that he was quite interested in adding the former Kentucky star to the No. 14 pick in the 2019 Draft, but Miami took him a spot earlier. If Ainge sees Herro as a cornerstone for a post-Mitchell list, he will consider Miami’s offer.
A quick note worth mentioning: while Mitchell and Bam Adebayo are both in the Designated Rookie extensions, they can legally play on the same team because Miami selected Adebayo. Mitchell cannot, however, play on the same team as Ben Simmons, who also has a designated rookie contract, but was on loan to Brooklyn. Teams may have two designated Rookie players as long as at least one of them has been selected by the team in question. Speaking of Brooklyn …
As we mentioned, Simmons and Mitchell can’t play with the Nets next season. So … what if Simmons was on another team? This is the scenario: the Nets trade Kevin Durant to a team capable of providing them with both draft picks and high-level veterans (let’s say the Toronto Raptors because of their endless supply of wings). They then turn around and turn Simmons over to another place to pick the draft and, as expected, swap Kyrie Irving for the Lakers for more draft capital. Suddenly, between three exchanges, the previously sterile Nets have amassed enough election to go to Utah for Mitchell and, through Durant, have also amassed enough support talent around Mitchell to credibly fight in the future a a little close (let’s say a combination of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr. and Precious Achiuwa).
He’s not an immediate contender, but he’s not too shabby either, is he? It’s at least a start, a base built on a 25-year-old All-Star who apparently wants to be in his city and a transplanted support cast of the NBA’s best development infrastructure. Given how limited Brooklyn’s options seem at the moment, it could probably do a lot worse than starting all over again with Mitchell.
The real block here is the mechanics of the deal. There are so many moving parts to consider. Is there a contender willing to hand over several first-round players for Simmons? Minnesota was the obvious, but he just gave it all away for Gobert. Maybe Cleveland? And would Durant accept a change to any destination other than his favorite Phoenix or Miami? Will the Lakers find a second-round pick for Irving? So many things have to happen for Brooklyn to be viable. The road is there if the Nets want to take it, but it’s treacherous.
Let’s just say Toronto isn’t particularly excited about exchanging a 34-year-old Durant. Could Mitchell be a viable alternative? Toronto is so aligned with the defensive wings that protecting him at this end of the court seems more than feasible. Their one-on-one goal is exactly what they have lacked since Kawhi Leonard left, and their youth and three years of control of the team would give them a clue to build around them.
But the fundamental question here is the same as Toronto’s regarding Durant: will the Raptors offer Scottie Barnes? The answer is probably no. Barnes is a possible future star. But Mitchell is a star right now, and unlike Durant, he’ll probably stay that way for quite some time. The Raptors might be giving up a bit of a lead by taking the safe thing, but they’re getting rid of most of the risk that Barnes ’development is stalling. If he becomes a constant All-Star like Mitchell, his growth will be considered a success.
The Raptors traded for a star who previously didn’t want to be in Toronto. The loss of Leonard probably scares Toronto out of the race. Unless Mitchell expresses a significant interest in joining the Raptors, Barnes is simply too valuable to expect Mitchell to be excited to be a Raptor and can take you to a championship. Still, if they were to give up Barnes for anything, a 25-year-old All-Star would probably be one of their first choices.
This is one of those ideas that makes more sense on paper than in reality. Mitchell is better than CJ McCollum. He is also half a decade younger. New Orleans has up to six negotiable first-round picks, and two of them could be valuable, high-advantage Lakers selections. If New Orleans was primarily concerned with maximizing its title window, giving McCollum a spin for some assets and then doing it all to Mitchell would make a lot of sense.
But basketball is not played on paper. Teams simply don’t swap for established stars only to intentionally replace them six months later. McCollum was an essential voice in the locker rooms last season. They just won’t break what was a nice team last season to chase an All-NBA limit player who would only represent a modest improvement over their incumbent in their position. This is not how basketball usually works. If so, the Pelicans would probably be courting Durant a little more aggressively right now.
So no, the Pelicans probably aren’t in Mitchell. They are simply one of the few teams with the assets to get it as long as they remain long-term candidates. Eventually, the Pelicans will likely put their chips on a third star alongside Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. It probably won’t be Mitchell.