i.a. Analysis of solar active regions and activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 14/1019Z from region 3098 (N18W65). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of Class M flares on days one, two and three (September 15, September 16, September 17).
IIA Summary of Geophysical Activity 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The speed of the solar wind reached a maximum of 340 km/s on 14/1945Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT on 14/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1932Z. Protons above 10 MeV in geosynchronous orbit peaked at 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons above 2 MeV in geosynchronous orbit peaked at 15800 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 September), quiet to active levels on day two (16 September) and unstable to active levels on day three (17 September ). Protons have a slight chance of crossing the threshold on days one, two and three (September 15, September 16, September 17).
III. Event Probabilities Sep 15-17 SepClass M 30/30/30Class X 05/05/05Proton 15/15/15PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm FluxObserved on Sept 14. from 144Predict Sept. 15-Sept. 17. 155/150/14590 Average for the 14th of September. of 123
V. Geomagnetic indices A Afr/Ap observed Sep 13 005/004Afr/Ap estimated Sep 14 005/005Afr/Ap predicted Sep 15-Sep 17 006/005-012/015-015/018
VI. Probabilities of geomagnetic activity 15 Sep-17 SepA. MidlatitudesActive 15/30/40 Minor storm 10/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05B. High latitudesActive 15/15/15 Minor storm 20/20/30 Large and severe storm 20/30/35