Bali, Indonesia CNN —
Polish President Andrzej Duda said the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending against a wave of Russian missile attacks, and that the incident it seemed to be an accident.
“There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely it was a Russian-made S-300 rocket,” Duda said in a tweet on Wednesday. He later told a press conference that there was a “high probability” that it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and that it had probably fallen into Polish territory in “an accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles.
Duda’s comments echoed those of two officials briefed on initial U.S. assessments, who told CNN that the missile appears to have originated in Ukraine, although it was Russian-made.
CNN has not confirmed the type of missile that landed in Poland. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the nine-month conflict, including the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which Kyiv has deployed as part of its air defenses. These older generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.
The missile landed outside the rural Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west of the border with Ukraine on Tuesday afternoon, around the same time as Russia launched its largest wave of ‘missile attacks against Ukrainian cities in more than a month.
US officials said on Wednesday that the US assessment is what President Joe Biden appeared to allude to in earlier remarks when he said it was “unlikely” that the missile originated in Russia. The intelligence assessments were discussed at an emergency meeting called by Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said there was no indication the incident was the result of a deliberate attack.
“Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks,” Stoltenberg told a news conference after a emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday.
“But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine’s fault,” he said. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”
Stoltenberg added that “we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO.”
A joint statement after the emergency meeting at the G20 was deliberately ambiguous when it came to the incident, putting much more emphasis on the dozens of attacks that took place in the hours before the missile crossed into Poland.
The Associated Press reported Wednesday that three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian attack. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, according to the AP.
A spokesman for the US National Security Council declined to comment on the AP report. “We have no comment and will not confirm this report. As the president said today, we support Poland’s ongoing investigation to find out exactly what happened,” the spokesman said.
Earlier, Biden said preliminary information suggests the missile that landed in Poland is unlikely to have been launched from Russia after consulting with allies at the G20 summit in Bali.
“I don’t want to say that [it was fired from Russia] until we fully investigate,” Biden continued. “It’s unlikely in the mind of the trajectory that he was fired from Russia. But we’ll see.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia has “no connection” to the missile incident in Poland and that some leaders have made statements without understanding “what really happened.”
“The Poles had every opportunity to immediately report that they were talking about the remains of the S-300 air defense system missile. And accordingly, all experts would have understood that this could not be a missile that had anything to do with the Russian Armed Forces,” Peskov said during a regular call with reporters.
“We have witnessed another hysterical frenzied Russophobic reaction, which was not based on any real evidence.
“High-ranking leaders of different countries made statements without any idea of what really happened.”
These older generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.
In a statement to CNN on Wednesday, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not explicitly deny reports that the missile originated in Ukraine, but emphasized Russia’s responsibility for starting the war.
“There is only one logic to follow,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office. “The war started and is being waged by Russia. Russia is massively attacking Ukraine with cruise missiles. Russia has turned the eastern part of the European continent into an unpredictable battlefield. Intent, means of execution, risks, escalation – everything comes from Russia alone.”
“And here there can be no other explanation for any missile incident. Thus, when an aggressor country launches a massive and deliberate missile attack against a large country on the European continent with its outdated Soviet-era weapons (missiles of class Kh), the tragedy occurs sooner or later also in the territories of other states”.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force told national television on Wednesday that it would “do everything” to facilitate a Polish investigation into the strike.
“What happened was that the Air Defense Force repelled the air strike,” said Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Command. “What happened next, whether it was a Russian missile or the remains of the two rockets that went down, that needs to be inspected at the site. And that’s what’s happening right now.”
He added that “what happened yesterday is obviously the consequences of war.”
Russia launched a massive barrage of 85 missiles into Ukraine on Tuesday, mostly targeting energy infrastructure. The bombing caused blackouts in the city and left 10 million people without electricity across the country.
Zelensky later confirmed on Twitter that power had been restored to eight million consumers. “The supply has already been restored to 8 million consumers. Electrical engineers and repairmen will work through the night. Thank you all!”
Ukrainians across the country were expected to face more scheduled and unscheduled power outages on Wednesday.
“Massive missile attacks on November 15 on energy infrastructure and cold weather further complicated the situation with the power system,” state energy company NPC Ukrenergo said in a statement.
“Prepare for longer power outages: stock up on water, charge your devices and power banks ahead of time to keep in touch with your loved ones.”