With rapturous applause for the president, a live band and thousands of party faithful gathered in the Great Hall of the People, the biggest political event China has seen in decades is underway.
There’s an argument to be made that what’s happening in China this week is more important than any US or European elections. It could have much longer implications.
The Party Congress is the most important political event in China, it takes place every five years and decides who will sit in the highest echelons of the Chinese government.
This year, “The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party,” to give it its full name, is set to make history and break precedents that have existed for decades.
The week-long event will be attended by around 2,300 delegates from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This number includes political leaders of all ranks from all 34 provinces and regions, as well as delegates from the private sector, doctors, firefighters, farmers, “model workers” and even China’s first female astronaut.
Image: Last year’s Communist Party Congress in Beijing
Delegates will select the 200-member new central committee, officially China’s highest governing body.
These 200 will then elect the new members of the 25-member politburo and the politburo standing committee, which currently has seven members, including the president. In reality, these are the pinnacle of Chinese political power.
There will be ceremonial votes, but the outcome will have been decided beforehand in a series of backroom negotiations and straw polls.
Although there won’t be any new policy announcements, President Xi’s lengthy “work report” speech lasted two and a half hours (five years ago he spoke for three and a half hours!).
In the speech, Xi described the five years since the last party congress as “extremely rare and abnormal” and discussed military surges and COVID-19.
“We must strengthen our sense of difficulty, adhere to background thinking, be prepared for danger in peacetime, prepare for a rainy day, and be prepared to endure significant tests of strong wind and strong waves “, he said.
Here are eight things to keep in mind at the convention.
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3:08 Xi Jinping is preparing to strengthen his grip on China
1. How long will President Xi rule?
It is now almost beyond doubt that Xi Jinping will be nominated for an unprecedented third term as general secretary of the CPC and president of the country.
It means he will be in charge for at least another five years.
This is very significant. The rules were established in the early 1980s, shortly after Chairman Mao’s death, to limit future leaders to just two five-year terms. After Mao’s brutal and chaotic 27 years in power, the goal was to establish a model of “collective leadership” and ensure that power could never again be contracted so tightly into the hands of a single person.
But Xi successfully removed the two-term limit rules from the constitution in 2018, meaning he could now, in theory, be “ruler for life”.
However, it is important to remember that while this may say a lot about Xi’s personal ambition and his increasingly unchallenged power within the CCP, it probably also says a lot about the party’s desire for stability. Faced with unpopular “Zero COVID” measures and considerable economic challenges, many party loyalists may see continuity under a strong leader as desirable.
2. Could I also get a promotion?
He is already one of, if not, the most powerful man in the world. But it is possible that he can raise his position even more.
There is speculation that he could be given the position of “Chairman” within the CCP, a role that has not existed since the days of Chairman Mao.
This could involve him sitting above the seven-member politburo standing committee and offering the post of general secretary (currently the top job) to a young man.
Also count on other symbolic movements. “Xi Jinping Thought” is expected to be enshrined in the constitution. Xi’s political ideology currently has the catchy name “Xi Jinping Thought of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.” It is already being taught to children in schools and tested on party members.
But no leader since Mao has had his “thought” enshrined in this way.
None of these things would necessarily change much in practical terms—Xi would likely continue to be in control the way he is now—but it would be a significant ideological uplift and perhaps make him even harder to challenge.
3. Who will be in the first team?
The “moment” of the congress that China watchers are most excited about is toward the end, when the leader takes the stage followed in ranking order by the new Politburo Standing Committee.
Do a frantic analysis of who’s been promoted, who’s left the group, what these people represent, and what faction they’re from.
Whoever is chosen can offer insight into priorities and policy direction, but could also shed some light on the extent of Xi’s power and control.
This time, all eyes will be on who replaces Li Keqiang, the current premier (second in command) who is stepping down after completing his two terms.
People will also be watching to see if the top team is full of close Xi allies.
If so, it may be a sign of a harsh consolidation of power.
If the group is more mixed, it might indicate moderate limitations on their authority. Yet Xi has so successfully disrupted the power bases behind rival factions that even those who are not close allies probably do not pose much of a threat to him.
Promoting them could also be a kind of olive branch and symbol of unity within the management.
4. How old are they all?
It may seem strange to consider, but it is important because there is a long-standing convention that someone can only serve another term if they are 67 or younger at the time of Congress. Anyone 68 or older must retire.
Xi is 69 years old and, as we have already discussed, breaks with convention to stand.
But will he also break with that when it comes to this first team? He has strong allies in the Politburo Standing Committee who are 68 and 72 years old. If they don’t retire, it will mean a full-scale breach of the rulebook and what one expert has called a “constitutional crisis” when it arrives. to term limits and succession.
5. Speaking of succession, is there a plan?
It is generally quite easy to spot who the designated successor is within the highest levels of the CCP. They are usually the most senior member of the senior team, young enough to serve one term in office and then two terms as leader before reaching retirement age.
So if there are any new standing committee members aged 57 or younger, it will be a big moment and a sign that Xi may be stepping aside in five years.
If no one is there, it sends a strong signal that Xi intends to stay in office for much longer, perhaps another 10 years or more.
Many fear what this would mean if something were to happen to Xi (who, remember, is 69, overweight and a long-time smoker). Without an obvious successor, a sudden power vacuum could be very dangerous.
Image: A man enforces social distancing at a testing site in Sanya, Hainan Province. Image: AP
6. Will ‘Zero COVID’ continue?
In terms of politics, this will be the one that the Chinese will watch the most.
China still has a zero-tolerance approach to COVID with entire cities facing sudden and draconian lockdowns in just a handful of cases.
But any hope that “Dynamic Zero COVID” can be eased in Congress will likely be dashed. Just last week, state media published a series of articles extolling the virtues of the policy calling it “sustainable” and in an interview one of the country’s leading experts said there was no timetable for easing -the.
The party has been turned into a corner regarding COVID. He needs a way to declare victory and there is no evidence that a political “ramp” has been prepared.
China faces the reality of very little community immunity and an under-resourced hospital system that would be overwhelmed very quickly.
Party spokesman says China will make its COVID-19 prevention measures more scientific, accurate and effective, while reiterating Beijing’s position that its pandemic approach is the right one.
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1:57 Are China and Taiwan about to go to war?
7. Will we hear more about Taiwan?
Regaining control of the autonomous island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own, has long been a stated dream of President Xi.
In fact, the biggest applause for his speech came when Xi reiterated his opposition to Taiwan independence.
He said it is up to the Chinese people to resolve the Taiwan issue, and China will never give up the right to use force, but will strive for a peaceful solution.
Taiwan, which China considers its own territory, responded that it will not back down on its sovereignty or compromise freedom and democracy.
Despite the nationalist rhetoric, an international conflict over Taiwan would have enormous costs for China, and some in the CCP may feel that it has a lot of domestic instability to resolve first. Russia’s experience in Ukraine, while potentially offering lessons for China, would also have warned against swift action.
However, you’ll want to keep your options open.
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8. What about the economy?
China is facing huge economic challenges right now, from Zero COVID lockdowns, to a major crisis…