It is supposed to be the time to decide for the Conservative MPs. But after six months of waiting for Sue Gray’s report on Westminster’s offending parties, many are still struggling to clear Boris Johnson’s path to the next general election or oust the man who won them a majority. of 80 seats.
What is already clear is that the boastful proclamations of Johnson’s supporters this week that the Prime Minister’s position was secure have been premature. The drip of censorship letters has continued, while dozens have remained silent as they consider continuing the same next week.
And there is still a major upset that the fall in opinion polls is not recoverable as no Conservative advantage has been recorded since December 6th.
“We are going to lose and we deserve it,” sighed a minister, reflecting on the way forward. “We’re leaving.”
Conversation over the 54 letters needed to trigger a vote on Johnson’s prime minister has resurfaced, and on Friday Johnson suffered his first resignation since the Gray report: Paul Holmes resigned as secretary-general’s assistant minister. the Interior with a mockery of “toxic culture.” which seemed to have permeated the number 10 ”.
With only three people who have publicly confirmed that they rescinded their censure letters when the Ukrainian war began, the prime minister’s position is far from stable. A non-Johnson MP acknowledged, “I think he’s in more danger now than he was on Wednesday.”
Government figures hope the Chancellor’s £ 1bn support package to soften the spiraling costs of food and energy costs will help bolster support. But many Conservative MPs are frustrated to be forced to make another turn, this time by the application of an extraordinary tax.
And tax conservatives are especially frustrated by Sunak’s insistence that he is a low-tax chancellor, while announcing a 25% tax on the profits of oil and gas companies and withholding the promised tax cuts, possibly up to the next general election.
The move saw him accused by Conservative MP Richard Drax of “throwing red meat at the Socialists” and left another, Craig Mackinlay, “disappointed, embarrassed and dismayed that a Conservative chancellor could invent this gut.”
Others privately complained that it was “horribly bad” and proved that “we have no narrative.”
Robert Hayward, a Conservative father and poll expert, told the Guardian that there was “a feeling within the party in general, not just the parliamentary party, of unrest and drift.”
“I fear a slow and painful death for this government,” said one leader. “It has caused so many problems that we can’t even talk about the real problems of the day to start addressing.” They described the situation as “depressing and embarrassing”.
“The biggest problem, by far, is the feeling that the government is now tired and disarticulated,” said another.
The new YouGov model has found that of the 88 “battlefield” constituencies the party took from Labor in the last election, or which it currently has with a majority of less than 15 points, only three would remain in Conservative hands. Among those that could change red is Johnson’s seat in west London.
At Partygate, the government’s anti-corruption tsar, John Penrose, crystallized the enigma faced by those who hoped he would issue a more poignant verdict and now expect the privileges committee to begin its investigation into whether Johnson cheated. the parliament.
Asked if the prime minister should resign, Penrose said: “I’m sorry, I’m still thinking about it, so I’m going to sleep in it. But it’s because [the Gray report] he hasn’t put the problem to bed in one way or another.
“It could take months, and … one of the reasons I’m so angry and frustrated is that I was hoping we could have a crystallized response now, and we didn’t get it.”
But now some feel able to judge more clearly the gravity of the situation, and some of Johnson’s opponents smell blood.
They have offered to hand over letters from colleagues, and they feel an opportunity during the next recess to push the hesitant over the line because they believe Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Post-Banquet Committee, would not alert Johnson. if the threshold was reached while the Commons were not seated.
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The number of people who have publicly asked Johnson to face a ballot is half 54, and several deputies informed the Guardian that they had sent a letter in private. Some who have never done so wonder how to do it discreetly.
“Number 10 is totally exciting if you think this is gone. It just wasn’t like that,” said one hesitant, who said his inbox was piled up with outraged emails, not ” the usual fucking people, but people we’ve never heard of and conservative members. “
Another said he wished the Prime Minister had received a second police fine from Partygate, to offer them enough coverage to send a letter.
But opponents of Johnson admit that it is still a struggle to get enough colleagues to move against him, given the unpredictable nature of the leadership competition that could follow and the lack of appetite for Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss.
“It’s harder to get to 54 than 180 somehow,” one noted, comparing the number needed to activate a censorship vote and the number needed to win it.
Johnson’s departure in February, when his position was most dangerous on Partygate and a failure to implement conservative policies, was the war in Ukraine. But the argument may not hold if the conflict continues for months or years.
“People need to wake up and start realizing that we don’t need another Churchill,” a conservative rebel said. “We just need something better than Boris.”